RotoWire make Kane first scorer their explicit best bet at +380, confirming he is the structural choice for this market. Fox Sports are direct: "Head to halftime even, Harry Kane to the spot in the second half looks like a likely recipe." Oddschecker confirm him as the unanimous anytime market leader at 5/4 (+125) with a 46.44% implied probability — the highest of any player in the fixture.

The first scorer case is built on three pillars. First: Kane is England's penalty taker, meaning any spot-kick in this match is automatically his attempt. Second: Croatia have conceded first in 5 of their last 6 fixtures — a trend that makes England's early lead near-inevitable. Third: Kane scored a superb header in England's warm-up win over New Zealand and has scored 7 goals in his last 9 England matches, with 61 club goals for Bayern Munich in 2025-26. Compare.bet note that Kane "averaged a goal per match in qualifying" and has an 8-goal, 11-game World Cup record. Racing Post confirm "he is likely to waste no time in scoring at a third successive World Cup." At +350 first scorer for the market's unanimous anytime leader, Kane is the clearest first goal pick on today's entire World Cup slate.

Oddschecker explicitly name Bellingham in their four-leg bet builder for this match: "Jude Bellingham continues to be one of England's biggest attacking threats from midfield, regularly making late runs into the penalty area and finding shooting opportunities in dangerous positions."

The first scorer case at +850 is built on the gap between his first scorer price and his anytime value. Oddschecker's multi-book consensus shows 18/5 (+360) anytime — and Bellingham's attacking role means a meaningful slice of that probability comes via an opening goal. Covers confirm he "will operate as a second striker at times" in Tuchel's system, making late penalty-area runs behind Kane where Croatia's defensive shape will already be stretched. TNT Sports note Croatia's "defensive vulnerability from set pieces" — Bellingham at 6'1" is a major aerial threat who can arrive to unmarked positions at back-post deliveries. The price gap between +310 anytime and +850 first scorer creates outstanding value for a player who is as likely to score first as to score later in any given England attack.

Gordon was Tuchel's explicit starting choice over Marcus Rashford — a tactical decision that signals his centrality to England's left-flank attack. Covers explain: "Anthony Gordon will be hitting the byline and squaring it to Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, who'll operate as a second striker at times."

Gordon's role gives him two routes to scoring first. The primary route is cutting inside from the left onto his right foot and shooting from range or arriving into the penalty area when Kane drops deep — a pattern that Tuchel has used consistently at club level. The secondary route is winning a penalty himself on the left side, with Stanišić or Gvardiol potentially making contact on his drives. ESPN confirm Gordon's "performance against Costa Rica" in the warm-ups secured his starting place. At +850 first scorer with Oddschecker's multi-book anytime consensus at 10/3 (+333) — the same price as Bellingham — Gordon represents identical value with a different scoring mechanism, and is the best pure pace play for the opening goal on today's card.

Kramarić is Croatia's most creative attacking player — the one who links midfield to attack and arrives in finishing positions off Modrić's diagonal passing. Oddschecker confirm him at 9/2 (+450) anytime across their multi-book consensus — the best Croatian price on the board.

Fox Sports back "both teams to score" as a market for this match — which implies they believe Croatia will find the net at least once. CBS Sports predict "more of a defensive slugfest than a shootout" — a low-scoring scenario where one Croatian counter-attack produces the game's only goal is not impossible given the 2018 WC semi-final template. Croatia won that match 2-1 AET from 1-0 down — they know how to score in England matches. If Croatia score first — even at 20% overall probability per Kalshi — Kramarić is the most dangerous player to deliver it. At the first scorer price, this is the only Croatian option worth a small longshot stake today.

🔮 Prediction: England 2-0 Croatia — Kane opens the scoring

First Goal: Harry Kane +350 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
Market leader · RotoWire explicit best bet

England vs Croatia · First Goalscorer · AT&T Stadium Dallas · 4 PM ET

Who is most likely to score first in England vs Croatia?

Harry Kane at +350 first scorer is the market's unanimous top pick. RotoWire make Kane first scorer their explicit best bet at +380. Fox Sports are direct: "Head to halftime even, Harry Kane to the spot in the second half looks like a likely recipe." Oddschecker confirm him as the anytime market leader at 5/4 (46.44% implied). He is England's penalty taker, has scored 7 goals in his last 9 England matches, has 8 World Cup goals in 11 appearances, and Croatia have conceded first in 5 of their last 6 fixtures. At +350 for the unanimous market leader, Kane is the clearest first scorer bet on today's slate.

Why are Bellingham and Gordon worth backing at +850 first scorer?

Bellingham: Oddschecker explicitly include him in their bet builder for this match — "regularly making late runs into the penalty area and finding shooting opportunities in dangerous positions." Covers confirm he "will operate as a second striker at times" in Tuchel's system. Croatia's set-piece vulnerability is a significant edge for Bellingham, who at 6'1" can arrive unmarked at the back post. Gordon: Tuchel's explicit choice over Rashford, a Barcelona winger operating on the left with pace to beat Stanišić, who can cut inside to shoot or win penalties. Both offer +850 at the same price with different scoring routes through England's attack.

What are the England vs Croatia FanDuel odds today?

England are -150 on the FanDuel money line, Croatia at +420, draw at +265. Under 2.5 goals is -144, Over +116. England 57% win probability per Kalshi and Dimers. England won all 8 qualifying matches, scored 22 goals, conceded zero. Croatia lost warm-ups to Brazil 3-1 and Belgium 2-0. Both Teams Not to Score is -130 — the strongest statistical trend in this match (BTS failed in 9 of England's last 10 matches).

What time and where is England vs Croatia today?

England vs Croatia kicks off at 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday June 17, 2026 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (Dallas), Texas — home of the Dallas Cowboys, capacity 94,000. It airs on FOX in English and Telemundo in Spanish in the United States. In the UK it airs live on ITV1 at 9pm BST. This is a rematch of the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which Croatia won 2-1 after extra time. England's most recent meeting was a 1-0 Euro 2020 group stage win.