Derrick Henry Lands With Baltimore: 2024 Rushing, Receiving and Touchdown Props Analysis

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
Derrick Henry Lands With Baltimore: 2024 Rushing, Receiving and Touchdown Props Analysis

After years of pulverizing the AFC South as the Tennessee Titans' lead rusher, Derrick Henry has found a new team for the 2024 season -- the Baltimore Ravens.

"King" Henry's new deal includes $9 million in guaranteed money for the upcoming season and could be worth up to $20 million over the next two years. It's clear the Ravens have expectations for the former 2,000-yard rusher.

Henry should have a clear runway to a heavy workload after the Ravens let both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins walk in free agency. So what should we expect from the two-time rushing champion in his new threads this season?

Let's take a look at Derrick Henry's player props and regular season specials on FanDuel Sportsbook to get a sense of the early vibes around Henry's signing.

Derrick Henry 2024 Player Props

Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing Yards
Over 975.5-112
Under 975.5-112

Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing TDs
Over 10.5+104
Under 10.5-134

Derrick Henry Regular Season Specials
Derrick Henry to Score 10+ Regular Season Rushing TDs-125
Derrick Henry to Record 1000+ Regular Season Rushing Yards-110
Derrick Henry to Score 12+ Regular Season Rushing TDs+185
Derrick Henry to Record 1250+ Regular Season Rushing Yards+450
Derrick Henry to Score 15+ Regular Season Rushing TDs+850

Henry's early rushing yard over/under of 975.5 yards has traditionally been a low bar for the star to clear. He surpassed that mark in all but one of his seasons since 2018 and nearly met the mark in just eight games in his injury-shortened 2021 season.

His fit with new quarterback Lamar Jackson could lead to fewer total rushing yards for the stud back, but the markets still see him punching in plenty of scores. His 10.5 rushing touchdown over/under implies that the Ravens' offense will find its way to the red zone pretty often in the 2024 regular season. So how does Henry fit overall with the Baltimore Ravens?

Derrick Henry's Fit in Baltimore

The Ravens Have Needed a Back Like Henry

Comparing apples to oranges, the Ravens should offer a more fruitful offensive environment for Henry than the 2023 Titans were able to. While the wheels fell off for the Titans entering a rebuilding period, the Ravens constructed one of the NFL's premier offenses under offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

The 2023 Ravens finished fourth in total points (483), sixth in total offensive yards (6,296), and fourth in yards per play (5.9). They were moving the ball at will for good swaths of the season and finished with the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (26).

Whenever the Ravens' offense with Jackson has been healthy, they've produced an efficient rushing attack. It's the "healthy" part that has often been the issue. They've dealt with some seriously poor luck when it comes to injuries in recent seasons and especially at the running back position.

With Henry, the Ravens are getting a player who has reliably handled the most carries in the league in four of his last five seasons. He was even pacing to comfortably lead the league in carries in 2021 before suffering a broken foot but has otherwise hardly missed a game since entering the league.

Can Henry Keep it Going?

Air-dropping Henry into this offense could result in fireworks for Baltimore. The big question for 2024 will be this: does Henry still have the juice?

Henry's raw production took a hit in the Titans' terrible offense last year, but there are still plenty of reasons to believe he's got tread left on his tires.

With nothing going on in Tennessee's passing game, defenses keyed in on Henry, as he faced boxes of eight or more defenders at the second-highest rate (35.4%). He was still able to muster up 0.31 rushing yards per attempt over expectation, according to NFL's Next Gen Stats, which ranked 16th-best among qualifying backs.

Likewise, Henry's 2023 rushing success rate (46.1%) wasn't far off from his career average of 49.3%. He finished third in yards after contact (601) and broke tackles at the ninth-best rate among backs with at least 200 carries.

And to top it off, he even recorded the seventh-fastest top ball-carrier speed in all of 2023, hitting 21.68 miles per hour in Week 18. If a guy hits a top speed like that in the final game of the year, it feels fair to assume he's got gas left in the tank.

How Far Can This Offense Go?

The combination of Henry and Jackson could become one of the league's most dynamic duos in 2024. Any football fan should be excited to see what they can accomplish together this fall.

Early bettors like the Ravens' chances. Their +900 odds to win the Super Bowl rank third-best, trailing only the San Francisco 49ers (+500) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+650).

Baltimore's +105 odds to win the AFC North are arguably equally as impressive as their Super Bowl odds. Besides the Chiefs (-250) in an AFC West division featuring three franchises entering rebuilds, no team has better odds than Baltimore to win their division.

That becomes even more impressive considering the division they play in. Each of the AFC North's four teams finished with winning records in 2023 despite three of the four managing serious quarterback issues during the season. It's a highly competitive division, and the Ravens are clear favorites to win it.

Finally, if you think an efficient offense like the Ravens' is exactly what Henry needed to return to dominance, you can consider betting him at +6000 odds to win AP Offensive Player of the Year. He's won it before and now gets to play alongside a two-time MVP winner. That sounds like a recipe for a successful offense to me.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.