This is Group L's defining match. Croatia have to win — anything less and they are at the mercy of results elsewhere. Ghana, sitting second with 4 points, know that a draw almost certainly advances them. The matchup pits Croatia's creative desperation against one of football's most accomplished defensive tacticians: Carlos Queiroz, former Real Madrid coach and Sir Alex Ferguson's assistant, who was only appointed in April 2026 and already delivered a 1-0 win over Panama and a masterly 0-0 against England that Queiroz felt should have been a win (VAR denied a penalty).

Luka Modric at 40 years and 198 caps — possibly his last World Cup match — is Croatia's creative heartbeat. He will be desperate to find one more magical performance. But Croatia's vulnerabilities were exposed against England (4-2) and they will face Ghana's Partey-anchored low block, which has yet to concede a single goal in this tournament. The contrast with their 4-2 drubbing is stark.

Racing Post: "Ghana are unbeaten in three games under Queiroz · Croatia lost 3 of last 5 · none of Ghana's last 4 games featured more than 2 goals · only 10 shots on target combined in their 4 WC matches · Ghana gone 9 games without a first-half goal." This is the most genuinely competitive, hard-to-call match of Matchday 17 — and it's the only one where the draw is the primary betting play.

Covers primary: "The Black Stars have tied two of their last three outings, and I'm jumping on this price for a draw in Philadelphia. Ghana only had 21% possession against England but allowed just 3 shots on target that day." Racing Post: "None of Ghana's last four games have featured more than two goals — only 10 shots on target combined in their four WC matches." A draw advances Ghana; Queiroz's side is built for exactly this. Draw +245 is generous for a team that only needs not to lose. Kalshi prices draw at 29%. Playable to +180. $10→$34.50.

Squawka primary: "Croatia to win + Under 2.5 Goals is the supporting play." Sportsgambler: "Under 2.5 not covered in 4 consecutive Ghana games — not covered in 5 of the last 6. We think it's a 70% probability." Covers: "Under on a line of 2.5 — the Croatians scoring just 6 total goals across their last five games. Playable to -165." Racing Post: only 10 shots on target combined between these teams in their four WC games. Check FD for confirmed price.

Lineups.com makes both their explicit primaries for this match with a Ghana 2-1 Croatia score prediction. Ghana +0.5 +110: Ghana need only a draw — that extra half-goal insurance is plus money. Jordan Ayew G/A +380: "Jordan Ayew has scored a goal or assist in 7 of 10 World Cup matches." As Ghana's captain and focal attack point under Queiroz, Ayew's involvement in any goal is highly probable on the counter. $10 on Ghana +0.5 = $21. $10 on Ayew G/A = $48.