College Football Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 12/2/23

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

How should we approach this week's main slate?

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category. All college football odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Slate

Conference championship weekend is always one of the more peculiar slates of the season. All games are usually projected as competitive, excellent defenses are abundant, and extensively dipping into Group of 5 teams and matchups isn't common on FanDuel's Saturday main slate. There aren't as many "layup" spots as usual.

With that said, the favorite in the clubhouse for a shootout is obvious. It's the Mountain West title game between the Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels with a projected total of 58.5 points and a tiny spread (2.5). We've tasted both on main slates -- but it's been a while.

From there, the two largest games (in terms of CFP ramifications) are next in line with totals. We're expecting 54.5 combined points in both the Big XII title game between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the same total awaits the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship.

Of course, the cross-off spot is obvious with the Iowa Hawkeyes on the slate. They've got just a 6.5-point implied team total taking on the vaunted Michigan Wolverines, and the 21.5-point spread there is fairly ugly, too.

Quarterbacks

Top Plays

• Jalen Milroe ($10,500)
  • There are projected points in Atlanta, and Milroe's touchdown equity nears that of Jalen Hurts in the NFL. He's got 21 passing and 12 rushing TDs on the season. On paper, he leads the slate in rushing yards per game (58.2) and passing YPA (10.9). I don't want to overthink this one.
• Quinn Ewers ($10,200)
  • There isn't a softer defense playing on Saturday than Oklahoma State's. In terms of yards per attempt (YPA) allowed, they're 91st against the rush and 121st against the pass. UT's backfield has blown up into a committee, so Ewers is a great place to safely encapsulate production from the Horns' slate-high 34.5-point implied team total.
• Tate Rodemaker ($6,800)
  • If not for Jordan Travis' injury, the former Heisman contender would have been the no-doubt top QB on the slate. Travis' backup here can work, too. Louisville is 16th against the rush but 78th against the pass, so it'll likely be on Rodemaker and his prolific playmakers to beat the Louisville Cardinals and keep the Florida State Seminoles' CFP hopes alive.

Others to Consider

• Taylen Green ($9,000)
  • Boise's dual threat QB isn't used a ton (16.8 attempts per game), but he does head the Broncos' excellent run game when UNLV cedes 4.1 yards per attempt. He's run for at least 25 yards in each start, implying a chance of a score or two in Saturday's marquee environment.
• Jayden Maiava ($8,800)
  • On the other side, Maiava is called upon significantly more than Green (24.1 pass attempts per game) with some rushing juice. UNLV's backfield is a messy timeshare; luckily, their QB and a stud wideout to come form a nice chunk of their offense through the air.

Running Backs

Top Plays

• Peny Boone ($10,000)
  • The MAC is a conference very much comprised of men on few teams and boys on most others. Of the top-tier RBs, I think Boone has the best combination of role (21 of 31 RB carries last week) and matchup. Despite the Miami (OH) RedHawks' strong rush D on paper (3.6 YPA allowed), they ceded 73 yards on 17 carries to Boone in these clubs' previous matchup. Add a touchdown, and that works.
• Kimani Vidal ($9,200)
  • Vidal is the only back on the slate that checks every box. The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 111th in rushing YPA allowed (4.9), and Vidal has seen 66.5% of the Troy Trojans' carries in the past five weeks -- good for 20.0 per game. I might jam him into every lineup with insecurity all over at running back.
• Makhi Hughes ($8,900)
  • Is the SMU Mustangs' defense for real? A 43.5-point total for their meeting with the Tulane Green Wave would say so, but Makhi Hughes' role and salary are good enough to take a chance they leak on Saturday. The freshman has handled 65.9% of the Green Wave's carries in the past five weeks, and he's posted a stellar 5.4 YPC this season overall.

Others to Consider

• Ashton Jeanty ($11,500) and George Holani ($9,000)
  • Other than recent FanDuel points, Jeanty's salary makes no sense. He's seen just 25.7% of Boise's carries in the past five weeks with Holani at 46.7%. Those are not good roles for these salaries, but the environment makes both a threat for multiple scores. Play or fade with caution.
  • NOTE AFTER PUBLISH: After this report from Idaho News, part of these odd salaries is Holani and Jeanty have been hurt in conjunction this season. It could still be a committee, but it's tough to say at this moment.
• Ollie Gordon II ($10,700)
  • OG2 is a phenomenal talent with a phenomenal role, scoring 16 touchdowns in his last 6 games. However, Texas' rush D is fifth in the entire country in YPA allowed (2.9), so a path to failure is obvious. He posted 4.2 FanDuel points against the Central Florida Knights as his struggling QB tossed four interceptions; I've got that same fear for this entire offense against Texas' playoff-bound defense.
• Blake Corum ($9,500)
  • I nearly lofted Corum over Boone into the player picks with a near-identical role, but this game environment stinks, and the Wolverines have incentive to rest him if the large spread comes to fruition. Iowa's only ceded 3.1 YPC this year against decent rushing attacks, so it's also no given that UM runs wild as a heavy favorite.
• CJ Baxter ($7,800)
  • Two weeks ago, Baxter would have headlined the slate. However, he struggled with six of Texas' first seven RB carries last week and only earned three more total in a blowout. He was outplayed by all of Jaydon Blue ($5,900), Keilan Robinson ($5,100), and Savion Red ($4,900) in total yards and YPA.
  • There's a ton of talent in those four names, which makes it feel like a committee not worth our time with other alternatives.
  • NOTE AFTER PUBLISH: Baxter was confirmed to have a hip issue that led to his role reduction, but I still don't know if his role is safe due to the depth/performance of other backfield mates.

Wide Receivers

Top Plays

• Ricky White ($10,400)
  • Though not a usual main-slate suspect, White is salaried like one for good reason. He's drawn 39.5% of UNLV's targets (10.0 per game) and posted 46.5% of their total passing offense this season. There isn't a better way to spend north of $10,000 in salary on the slate.
• Xavier Worthy ($8,600)
  • Again, if UT's backfield is going to be gross, I'll just turn to the air instead. Worthy has drawn 10.6 targets per game (35.1%) in the past five weeks. I think his true role has been diluted due to blowouts, too. Texas' second-best target earner in the past five weeks -- Adonai Mitchell ($8,200) -- has just a 19.1% share.
• Johnny Wilson ($7,300)
  • FSU would love to lean on its run game, but I'd imagine they'll trail a quality Louisville team without their star QB. Wilson earned nine targets last week to six for Keon Coleman ($7,600), but both come with palatable salaries and plenty of talent when the Cardinals have been such an obvious pass funnel all season.

Others to Consider

• Gage Larvadain ($9,000)
  • Correlation is a general positive, so despite a tough matchup with the Toledo Rockets, Larvadain has drawn 38.2% of Miami-OH's targets in the past five weeks. He's an obvious place to look if the Redhawks turn to the air more than they have amidst a four-game winning streak against weak MAC competition.
• Brennan Presley ($8,000)
  • With Texas' stout defense on tap, Presley's low aDOT route tree is a perfect bring-back option to Ewers and Worthy. He's drawn 29.5% of OSU's targets in the past five weeks (11.4 per game) but has accounted for just 23.4% of the team's yardage this season.
  • Leon Johnson III ($7,400) and Rashod Owens ($6,200) are also above a 23.0% share in this time, so the passing attack is concentrated. I'm just worried about the efficiency of their deeper targets.
• Jamari Thrash ($7,500)
  • Louisville has topped 30 points in consecutive weeks, but their top wideout hasn't been involved. He's still at a 21.9% target share overall while leading the team in routes, so a bounce-back performance could be on the way just when they need him to win the ACC.
• Isaiah Bond ($6,000)
  • Last week's Iron Bowl hero didn't just catch that marquee TD. He's drawn 31.2% of Milroe's targets in the past five weeks, emerging as the clear top option for 'Bama. Georgia's rush D is not quite as strong as last year (48th in FBS), but the expectation is still that these two squads will have to make plays in the passing game to score.
  • Brock Bowers ($8,400) and Ladd McConkey ($7,000) will draw popularity from Georgia's side, but neither has over a 21.0% target share for entire season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.