College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/23/23

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

With conference play starting, we should see much higher-scoring DFS slates on FanDuel. We've got totals into the 60s and 70s for some of these -- unexpected -- clashes between ranked squads. This slate is loaded at all positions, so we'll be really nitpicking between "good" to "great" targets on this slate.

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.

The Slate

We're starting to see some truly astronomical totals on the board, and that should only continue as Pac-12 conference play ensues.

This week's can't-miss total is the 70.5-point number between the Colorado Buffaloes and Oregon Ducks. There's a three-touchdown spread, but, as we saw in their opener, CU can score with anyone at their peak.

In a lower-profile showdown, the Southern Methodist Mustangs and Texas Christian Horned Frogs have a 63.5-point total. We saw last week how useless it can be if TCU is scoring when their market shares are completely wide open, but perhaps SMU will give us a few interesting options.

From there, I think you only really need to cross off the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Penn State Nittany Lions due to their 40.5-point total. Everything we want in DFS is what Iowa strives to avoid, so they'll mostly render us down a game any week they're on the main slate.

Quarterbacks

Key Takeaways

• Obviously, you've got accept or reject the massive salary on Bo Nix ($12,200) with a gargantuan implied total for Oregon. CU has allowed three great quarterback games in three tries this season, so you can't possibly say "no" as a process play.
  • On the other side, we've also got an exact sample of Shedeur Sanders ($10,400) in negative scripts, and it's a great one. He comfortably leads the slate in attempts per game (45.7) as the Buffs continue to air it out.
• Jayden Daniels ($11,600) lit up last week's slate, but I'm not sure how I feel about a 17.5-point spread hosting the Arkansas Razorbacks. It feels like we're paying the premium for that production with an obvious path to failure.
  • I prefer KJ Jefferson ($7,500) as a value plug on the other side. It'll be an extremely negative script for the dual threat -- his first of the season.
• If you're looking to stack the solid total between the Mississippi Rebels and Alabama Crimson Tide, Jalen Milroe ($10,200) and Jaxson Dart ($9,100) are two of the top-three rushers (on a per game basis) for the slate. Both are candidates for a monster score.
• Similar to last week, Chandler Morris ($10,500) is likely the one safe route to target TCU with their spread market shares.
• QB injuries are a pretty notable theme to watch this week, too.
  • Will Howard ($10,000) was banged up in the Kansas State Wildcats' loss last week. With such a late lock, I'm not sure you can build around him as a true question mark.
  • Jalon Daniels ($9,500) should be good to go against the Brigham Young Cougars after dealing with a back issue earlier this season. He was a $12,000-level QB last season and has returned to form.
  • Cameron Rising ($9,000) appears to be getting close to a return from offseason knee surgery. The Utah Utes and Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins could be an under-the-radar stack given the game's lower profile.

Running Backs

Key Takeaways

• Frankly, I don't understand the salary for Devin Neal ($11,000) at all. In an average game on the slate, Neal was out-carried by other Kansas Jayhawks backs in their only Power 5 game of the season. His 11.4% target share is nice -- but not that nice.
• Similarly, Bucky Irving ($10,000) and Noah Whittington ($7,300) are splitting Oregon's backfield more than Irving's salary may suggest. Irving has four-touchdown upside in a shootout, but he'll have to see a great deal of good fortune to get that many key opportunities.
• Emani Bailey ($9,200) leads the top backs in rush share (51.8%), but Trey Sanders ($7,500) continues to dominate the goal line (and not much else) with 4 touchdowns on 28 carries. They're a headache.
• The one top back I do like is Audric Estime ($9,100), who amassed 134 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish's only remotely competitive game. I'd be surprised if he didn't sail past 20 touches in a pivotal game with the Ohio State Buckeyes.
• Personally, these situations make this a better place to save this week.
  • Jonathan Brooks ($8,600) has tied Bailey's rush share (51.8%) in what is expected to be a favorable script against the Baylor Bears. If you're feeling risky on Baylor's side, Dominic Richardson ($6,000) also has a 54.1% rush share entering what is a brutal matchup against the Texas Longhorns.
  • The Oregon State Beavers haven't played a tight game yet, but Damien Martinez ($8,400) should be another of these lead backs when they do. He's already posted a decent 13.7 carries per game in lopsided blowouts.
  • Given Texas had plenty of success with the Alabama defense, it's insane Quinshon Judkins ($7,300) has such a low salary off last week's rest game. Judkins got 18 of 20 running back carries two weeks ago in an Ole Miss offense that will score.
  • Dylan Edwards ($6,600) has a 12.5% target share out of the Buffs' backfield and broke multiple long runs against TCU in the opener. Game script could favor his role again.
  • As a bring-back guy to Morris, Jaylan Knighton ($5,600) has gotten 16.5 carries for SMU. If there's any back-and-forth nature to this one, he's due for significant positive regression without a score this year.

Wide Receivers

Key Takeaways

• With Travis Hunter unfortunately out for a while, Xavier Weaver ($9,400) and Jimmy Horn Jr. ($8,300) are the best wideouts on the slate. They'll likely be trailing in an offense that's already funneled them 10.7 targets per game with Hunter in the mix.
• Guessing correctly on wideouts with poor target shares will likely be a game most play because of the name value, and you can't deny the upside in spots.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. ($10,200) is on Heisman shortlists for a reason, but his 8.7 targets per game leave a little doubt about a true alpha role for his salary with Emeka Egbuka ($9,000) and Julian Fleming ($5,600) lurking. I also don't quite trust Kyle McCord ($8,700) in his first meeting with a defense that'll give OSU any kind of resistance.
  • Troy Franklin ($9,800) is a downfield threat for multiple long scores, but his 21.4% target share in Oregon's only competitive game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders is really not that desirable for his salary in a vacuum. He caught a long one without much else in that game.
• This slate is not short on marquee pieces worth spending toward, though.
  • Malik Nabers ($10,500) established himself as LSU's go-to guy. He's now up to a 31.8% target share and got three looks at least 20 yards downfield last week. Sheesh.
  • Evan Stewart ($10,000) leads the slate in targets per game (13.5) and target share (34.8%) for a Texas A&M Aggies offense that's gone pass-heavy since sending De'Von Achane to the NFL.
  • Lincoln Victor ($9,700) is the clear top wideout for the Washington State Cougars, adding three scores to his 27.7% target share at this stage.
• There are budget options here, as well.
  • If Baylor can keep pace, Xavier Worthy ($8,500) is one of these top studs on a budget. He's gotten 8.3 targets per game and scored against Alabama, so the Bears' D should be of minimal concern.
  • Xzavier Henderson ($7,700) is an excellent bring-back wideout to any Oklahoma Sooners shares. Dual-threat quarterback Emory Jones ($7,900) is also a budget piece when I like the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover two touchdowns at home.
  • As mentioned with Martinez, the Beavs haven't played anyone yet, and top wideout Silas Bolden ($7,500) already has a 27.8% target share. That should bloom in conference play.
  • The Arkansas Razorbacks had a positive script last week, but a deeply negative one could bring Andrew Armstrong ($7,300) into consideration as a stacking partner for KJ Jefferson -- or a bring-back partner for Daniels and Nabors. Armstrong has a 29.3% target share thus far.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.