College Basketball Betting Picks for Monday 2/5/24

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Cavaliers

Under 132.5 (-118)

After going 3-1 over their last four games, Miami visits Virginia for an ACC clash on Monday. The Cavaliers tout one of the nation's best defenses with the 11th-best adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. With the Hurricanes totaling 80.8 points per game (PPG), which is in the 89th percentile, this is gearing up to be a strength-on-strength matchup.

However, Miami has seen their offensive numbers dip with 73.1 PPG over their last eight games. Their efficiency has also taken a notable drop over the last five games with a 44.6% field goal percentage (FG%) and 33.1% three-point percentage. For reference, the Canes have a 48.1 FG% (92nd percentile) and 38.1% three-point percentage (94th percentile) on the season.

With the offense's recent struggles, this is not an ideal time to take on one of the nation's most stingy defenses. The Cavaliers rank in the 97th percentile of opponent field goal percentage and made field goals allowed per game. Virginia is also in the 96th percentile in two-point attempts allowed each contest, but their perimeter defense is a flaw as they rank outside the top 100 in three-point shots allowed per game.

This could play right into the Cavaliers' hands when you consider Miami's recent slide from three, though. Virginia ranks in the bottom half nationally with opponents taking 39.9% of their shots from three. The Cavaliers could have no problem letting the Canes let it fly from three due to their recent shooting inefficiencies.

As usual, Virginia's offense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 144th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Mid-range jump shots have pretty much become a cardinal sin in modern basketball. Good shots typically take place in the paint or from three; it's that simple. With their poor offensive numbers, of course the Cavaliers have a weak shot selection as 32.4% of their shots are labeled as "father twos" by Bart Torvik.

Virginia rarely takes threes and is in the bottom 12% in three-point shots per game. Miami's defense is quite stingy from two, ranking in the 75th percentile of shots allowed each game. A bulk of the Cavaliers' shots could be inefficient mid-range jumpers yet again as the Hurricanes look to pack the paint.

With Virginia's strong defense and inadequate offense, I'm taking the under, which is 4-1 over the Canes' previous five games.

No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas -4.5 (-105)

Following a dominant 78-65 win against Houston, Kansas shot up four spots in the AP Top 25 Poll. Per usual, no one gets a break in the Big 12 as the Jayhawks are slated for a difficult away game against Kansas State. Kansas has struggled on the road with a 2-3 record. However, I think this is the game where the Jayhawks finally get the monkey off of their back.

First off, the Wildcats have simply struggled. They have lost four straight games while going 0-4 ATS, and Kansas State ranks as KenPom's third-worst team in the Big 12. They could simply be outmatched against Kansas, but let's take it a step further.

The Jayhawks have made big strides over the last couple of weeks with a 3-1 record outright and ATS. The freshman wing Johnny Furphy (8.5 PPG) deserves a ton of credit with 16.5 PPG over his last four games. The sharpshooter has converted 10 of his last 16 looks from three (62.5%). Meanwhile, the Wildcats rank in the bottom 33% of three-point shots allowed per game. Standing at 6-foot-9, Furphy should also have a size advantage with his potential matchup against Kansas State's Cam Carter, a 6-foot-3 guard.

Kansas could continue to get outstanding production from their breakout freshman wing. Plus, the Jayhawks' leading scorer, Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.7 PPG), seems poised for a big game as he will match up with the Wildcats' weakest defenders in Dai Dai Ames and Tylor Perry.

Kansas State could also be thoroughly dominated in the possession battle due to their tendency to turn the ball over. In fact, the Wildcats rank in the bottom 4% with 15.0 turnovers per game while Kansas is in the top half of the fewest turnovers each contest.

Considering the Jayhawks' recent level of play, Kansas State simply feels outmatched due to several alarming defensive matchups. Kansas could continue to get great play from their guards, leading to another cover.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.