Churchill Downs Picks for Stephen Foster Stakes Day, 6/27/26

Key Takeaways:

• Stephen Foster Day offers value well beyond the headline race, with a stakes-packed card and a wet-weather forecast that could reshape pace scenarios and reward horses proven on rain-affected going.
• Brave Force is the kind of price horse worth watching in the American Derby, with enough versatility to threaten whether the race stays on turf or is washed onto the main track.
• Harrodsburg looks like an intriguing upset candidate in the Bango, bringing proven Churchill form, a strong off-track record, and the kind of early speed that could make him dangerous if he controls the pace.
• Lagynos has all the makings of the horse to beat in the Wise Dan, entering in career-best form with proven Churchill success and enough versatility to handle either softer turf or a surface switch if the weather intervenes.

Kentucky Derby season may be over, but summer racing season gets hot early this year: we don’t even have to wait for summer meets like Saratoga and Del Mar to start in order to see the best of the best clash. The Churchill Downs spring meet draws to a close this weekend, but not before Sovereignty, White Abarrio, Magnitude, and Baeza all clash in a vintage edition of the $2 million Stephen Foster (G1).

However, that’s not the only big race Saturday in Louisville, Kentucky. A classy group of older fillies and mares clash in the Fleur de Lis (G2) with a Breeders’ Cup Distaff bid at stake. There are five more stakes races on the card as well, including two more graded races: the Wise Dan (G2) for older turf horses and the Bango (G3) for older dirt sprinters. The 12-race card gets underway at 12:45 p.m. EDT, and you can watch all day at FanDuel TV and bet every race at FanDuel!

Make sure to keep an eye on the weather and the scratches. Rainy weather is likely, so scratches may adjust pace and class scenarios, but it could also be an excellent opportunity to get betting value on horses who love to run in the mud.

Horse Racing Predictions: Churchill Downs Picks

These are free Churchill Downs tips and analysis for top contenders in some of the stakes races on the Stephen Foster Stakes day undercard:

Race 8: American Derby, 1 1/16 miles on the turf - Brave Force, Alpyland (turf), Fulmine (dirt)

FanDuel odds: 12-1, 8-5, 15-1

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Brave Force (12-1) is an interesting long shot contender, whether the race is contested on turf or moved to dirt. He isn’t proven on the grass yet – but his only turf try was a sprint at Kentucky Downs last September, a track that’s notoriously hostile to first-time starters like he was. He found his footing over the winter on the Tapeta at Turfway, though, and that form can translate to the grass. And, if the race is washed to the main? He returned from a freshening to win a first-level allowance over the Churchill slop on May 16. He is the only horse in the field with a victory over an off-dirt track, a level of experience that will help him as he takes this step up in class.

If the race stays on the grass, Alpyland (8-5) will take money but deserves serious respect. He hated dirt at the beginning of his career, but the switch to the lawn was just the ticket. He has won five times on the grass, including three times at the stakes level. Though he was off the board in his only start at Churchill Downs, the American Turf (G1) was a much tougher group than he faces here. The less-than-firm going is not a major worry, either; in his only start on less-than-firm ground, the Columbia over good turf at Santa Anita, he won by a comfortable two lengths. He has good tactical speed and a nice late kick, and will be a deserving favorite if the race stays on turf.

If the race is washed to the dirt, Fulmine (15-1) merits consideration. He will try two turns on the dirt for the first time if this race is moved off the grass. But, his pedigree suggests 1 1/16 miles should be right in his wheelhouse, and it has some upside for the slop as well: he’s by Spun to Run out of a Pulpit mare. He has shown tactical speed in sprint races, something that could help him get a good trip against this group, and he has a couple of good races last fall at Churchill Downs as well.

Race 9: Bango Stakes (G3), 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt - Harrodsburg, Cornucopian

FanDuel odds: 12-1 and 1-1

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Saturday is supposed to be a wet day, making Harrodsburg (12-1) an appealing long shot. He comes out of a six-furlong win in the slop at Churchill Downs, and a strong effort on a wet track is no anomaly: in four off-track starts, he has two wins and a nose second to show for it. Class is the question – this six-year-old hadn’t tried stakes company since he was a well-beaten third in the Dwyer back in 2023. But, he’s second off the lay, he has enough early speed to shape as the controlling pace, and he’s a proven contender over a wet track at Churchill Downs. That’s enough to give him an upset chance.

Cornucopian (1-1) will likely have to handle a wet track for the first time. The pedigree has upside for it, though; he is by 18% slop sire Into Mischief out of a mare by one of the best off-track sires of our time, Distorted Humor. His win last out came at six furlongs, but he is an allowance winner going 6 ½ and a Grade 3 winner at seven furlongs, meaning the extra distance shouldn’t faze this Bob Baffert trainee. Though he won’t be a huge price, he is the class of the field and is settled in nicely in Bob Baffert’s Churchill Downs string, so if his actual ability on an off-track lines up with his pedigree, it would be no surprise to see him triumph.

Race 10: Wise Dan Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles on the turf - Lagynos, Fort Washington

FanDuel odds: 5-2 and 5-1

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Lagynos (5-2) is at the top of his game. He rides a four-win streak into the Wise Dan, and has not been out of the trifecta in his last eight starts. That includes two straight wins on the Churchill lawn in the Opening Verse on April 30 and then the Arlington (G3) on May 30. Jose Ortiz stays in the irons with this horse, and knows how to use his tactical speed to good effect. And, if the rain forces the Wise Dan off the turf? You’d think a son of Kantharos out of a Speightstown mare would be able to handle the slop – and you’d be right, as Lagynos has a win and a third-place finish across two starts over a sloppy track. He also has a second-place finish in the Mint Millions (G3) at Kentucky Downs last year over turf rated good, meaning that if the race stays on the lawn, he doesn’t have to catch firm ground to run well.

Fort Washington (5-1) comes out of a victory in the Dinner Party (G3) at Laurel on Preakness day, and is a horse who can hold his form once he gets hot. He won last year’s Dinner Party at Pimlico over turf rated good, meaning the ground doesn’t have to be firm for him to do good work. He is versatile enough to track close to the pace (like he did last out, rallying into a slow pace to win) or sit further back, giving Junior Alvarado good options with him. And, though he has been off the board in two starts at Churchill Downs, he was second in this race beaten less than two lengths – so, especially at a likely solid middle price, there’s enough to think he can outrun those odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.