2026 Fleur de Lis Stakes Picks: 3 Best Bets

Key Takeaways:

• The Fleur de Lis may be a five-horse affair, but with Breeders’ Cup implications, possible rain, and multiple champions in the gate, trip and track conditions could matter just as much as raw class.
• Regaled offers the value play, bringing proven Grade 1-caliber form, an outstanding record over wet tracks, and a late-running style that can capitalize if the favorites soften each other up early.
• Shred the Gnar looks set for another ideal trip after proving in the La Troienne that she can stalk instead of needing the lead, while her Churchill form, mud pedigree, and red-hot connections only strengthen her case.
• Immersive has a chance to outrun her odds, as her tactical versatility, proven success over a muddy track, and opportunity to improve with a cleaner break make her a dangerous alternative to the top two choices.

The Stephen Foster Stakes may be Saturday’s feature, but it’s not the only major race Saturday at Churchill Downs. A ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff is at stake Saturday in the Grade 2, $500,000 Fleur de Lis Stakes. Reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna won this race last year, and though she has since retired, some of the best of the current crop of older females are lining up to assert themselves among the top of the division.

This Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series race may have only drawn a field of five older fillies and mares, but what it lacks in size it makes up for in class. The field includes Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Splendora, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Immersive, and last-out La Troienne (G1) winner Shred the Gnar.

With five talented horses in the field, it may very well come down to a jockey’s race. The weather also stands to make an impact: the forecast for Saturday in Louisville is a rainy one, meaning horses with form on off tracks or good sloppy-track pedigrees have a chance of making a serious impact.

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Fleur de Lis Stakes:

Fleur de Lis Stakes Betting Picks

1. Regaled (10-1)

Regaled is the second-longest shot on the morning line, and one of only two horses in the field who has not won at the Grade 1 level yet. However, she has been able to hold her own against good horses – she rallied for third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last year as a 30-1 outsider, taking a major step up in class after a blowout win in the Delaware Handicap (G3) last September.

And, that blowout win in the Delaware Handicap is part of what makes her a live long shot in the Fleur de Lis. That victory came at 1 ⅛ miles, the same distance as the Fleur de Lis. And, it came over a muddy track. That top-quality performance in the mud was no aberration, either: in four off-track starts, Regaled has two wins and two seconds, including a close second in the Azeri (G2) this year, where she was beaten three-quarters of a length by Majestic Oops but still crossed the wire ahead of bona fide superstar Nitrogen.

Though backing a closer in a race with a short field can be a hit-or-miss proposition, there are reasons she should be able to show her best here. For one, there are multiple speed horses in this race, including rail-drawn Splendora, outside-drawn Shred the Gnar, and even Immersive. (In Just My Heels may even try to send, since she tried a frontrunning style to good effect last out.) And, even if the pace ends up modest and not red-hot? Regaled reliably fires, and she is less dependent on the pace setup than many closers – she has been able to make big late runs even when the fractions in front of her are pedestrian. This is a lot to like about a horse who stands to be ignored on the tote board behind three big names.

2. Shred the Gnar (6-5)

The likely favorites in this spot are Shred the Gnar and Splendora – Shred the Gnar is the one to look at, and Splendora is the one to fade. Unlike Splendora probably being forced to send from the rail draw, Shred the Gnar got the outside stall in a group of five. This should help her get a clean, stalking trip – since she proved last out in the La Troienne that she doesn’t have to lead at every call to win, she should be able to work that nice stalking trip here as well.

The likelihood of rain also suits Shred the Gnar. Neither of the likely shortest-priced horses in the field have tried an off-track. However, Shred the Gnar has a great pedigree for the slop. Sire Into Mischief’s progeny win 18% of the time in the mud. Her dam, the Bernardini mare Aspen Light, has already produced four winners over rain-affected going.

Finally, the connections bolster confidence that Shred the Gnar can run big again. Trainer Brian Lynch comes into the race week with a 34% win rate on the meet at Churchill (13-for-38), Luis Saez is clicking at 18% on the meet, and together in the last two months, they have won five of their ten starts together, with two more runners hitting the board.

3. Immersive (8-1)

Immersive stands to be a bit forgotten on the tote board, given her recent second-place finish behind Splendora in the Shawnee Stakes on May 30. However, she still very much fits here.

Her pace versatility stands out here: with Splendora and Shred the Gnar almost certain to be very forward, she has enough speed to go with them if one or both of them don’t send for some reason, but she is able to win from a tracking spot, as well. It’s also nice to see jockey Irad Ortiz return to the irons – they united for the first time in the Shawnee Stakes (G2) last out, and though Immersive was left chasing for second after a tough start, a better beginning could lead to a more competitive effort this time around.

She also has upside over an off track. With the top two choices on the morning line never having tried a wet track before, the fact that Immersive has been successful in the mud stands out. She has only tackled an off track once – but it resulted in a stalk-and-pounce score in the 2024 Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga over a track rated muddy.

New to FanDuel Racing? Place your first bet of $10 on any race at any track & get $50 back in Racing Bonus. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Racing Promos.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.