Charles Schwab Challenge: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

Scottie Scheffler just took down his third career major when he won the PGA Championship by five shots at Quail Hollow.

This week, he's teeing it up in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Charles Schwab Challenge Info
Colonial Country Club Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 70
• Distance: 7,289 yards (long for a par 70)
• Average Fairway Width: 27.9 yards (tight)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small)
• Green Type: Bentgrass
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -14, -8, -9, -14, -15
• Recent Cut Lines: +2, +1, +1, +1, -2

Colonial Country Club Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Proximity From 125 to 200 Yards
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy

Colonial was renovated prior to last year's event, and we saw it play a bit differently than it has in the past. Historically, it had emphasized short game and minimized the impact of driver distance.

Driving distance was more important last year, and the winner (Davis Riley) and the two names finishing T2 (Scottie Scheffler and Keegan Bradley) were all top 14 in distance for the week.

With that said, some shorter hitters were also in the top 10, and we see a consistent emphasis on iron play (in part because of the smaller greens).

While it's long for a par 70, a lot of that comes from a few holes (a 240-yard par 3 and three par 4s rating out 480-plus yards).

There are a lot of average to short holes this week. I don't think distance has instantly become a must at the tree-lined Colonial.

I still want some semblance of around-the-green play, given the smaller greens, and I think that there's an angle of fairway-through-green play again this week.

Charles Schwab Challenge Past Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five years of this event, including their strokes gained data at this event.

Charles Schwab Challenge Recent Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, including their strokes gained data.

Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Scottie Scheffler

• Odds To Win Charles Schwab Challenge (+250)

I know this won't be for everyone, but just because Scottie Scheffler's odds are set at +250, that doesn't mean the value isn't there. In fact, it's where my model has him for the week, and it's hard to argue with it.

Scheffler has finished 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd in his last three starts at Colonial, and the form now puts him on a different planet compared to the rest of the field.

Scottie, in his last 50 rounds, is averaging +3.18 true strokes gained per round -- via datagolf. That adjusts for field strength. Second-best in the field in that span is Daniel Berger (+1.79), giving Scheffler a lead of 1.39 shots per round -- not over the field average but over the second-best golfer in the field.

In fact, only five golfers are within two shots per round of Scheffler over a 50-round sample:

Finally, Scheffler's consistency and ceiling are just untouchable. Over his last 50 rounds, Scheffler's realistic floor (his average SGT minus one standard deviation in his scoring) is +0.67 shots. A floor of over two-thirds of a shot per round gained on the field is pretty unprecedented. The next best floor is Berger at -0.54.

Daniel Berger

• Odds To Win Charles Schwab Challenge (+2200)
• To Win Without Scottie Scheffler (+1800)
• To Finish Top 10 (+250)

Daniel Berger will be a popular pick this week, and we've already seen his odds shorten from +2500 to +2200, but it's for good reason. As mentioned above with Scheffler, Berger is second to Scottie in average strokes gained per round over his last 50 and also owns the second-best ceiling and floor ratings in the field.

Not only that, but Berger has also won here (2020) and has three total top-25 finishes at Colonial in six starts.

The irons for Berger have been positive in 10 straight events, and his accuracy off the tee will be a plus.

Berger is also likely due for a bit of putting regression, as he ranks in the 62nd percentile on Tour in putting from within 15 feet this season but is 49th percentile from beyond that. Those are bankable splits either way but suggest some extra putts falling soon.

Aaron Rai

• Odds To Win Charles Schwab Challenge (+3500)
• To Win Without Scottie Scheffler (+2500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+320)
• To Finish Top 20 (+140)

Aaron Rai sets up well at Colonial, as he is an accurate driver (1st in the field over the last 50 rounds) and great iron player (11th). He's again due for putting regression: 59th percentile on short putts but 34th percentile on longer putts.

As for course history, Rai has made all three cuts in his career at Colonial -- each over the last three years. His finishes have been 68th, T12, and T32. He hasn't putted well on these bentgrass greens, unfortunately, but he's hit a ton of fairways and greens.

Combining that with his current form and hopeful putting improvement, Rai is a name to be mindful of this week.

J.T. Poston

• Odds To Win Charles Schwab Challenge (+4500)
• To Win Without Scottie Scheffler (+3300)
• To Finish Top 10 (+400)
• To Finish Top 20 (+190)

J.T. Poston finished T5 last week at the PGA Championship, giving him three made cuts at the biggest events of the year so far (he was T33 at THE PLAYERS and T42 at The Masters).

Poston also has finished T11 (RBC Heritage) and T23 (Truist Championship) in his recent starts leading into the PGA. He's done a lot of that with the putter, but his long-term splits are strong, and he's an accurate driver (21st) and a good iron player (14th).

It's a pretty similar profile to Rai's for longer odds.

Brian Harman

• Odds To Win Charles Schwab Challenge (+6000)
• To Win Without Scottie Scheffler (+4000)
• To Finish Top 20 (+210)

Brian Harman has pretty good current form (T60 at the PGA, T46 at the Truist, T3 at the RBC Heritage, T36 at The Masters, and a win at the Valero Texas Open), and that's built on an all-around game.

Not only that, but he's also got great course form (10 top-31 results in 12 starts with the other two being missed cuts, though one of those missed cuts was in 2012).

He's eighth in true strokes gained per round at Colonial all-time among golfers with two starts in this field.

Harman's game should translate again; he's 28th in accuracy, 27th in approach, 25th around the green, and 32nd in putting over his last 50 rounds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.