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Cavaliers vs. Celtics: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 5

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath

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Cavaliers vs. Celtics: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 5

The Boston Celtics have a chance to become the first team to advance to their respective Conference Finals if they can win Game 5 of their Semifinals series with the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The two teams split games in the Celtics' first homestand, but Boston broke serve in Cleveland to carry a 3-1 series lead back home.

The Cavaliers, unfortunately, will be pretty short-handed as they try to stave off elimination tonight. Starting center Jarrett Allen has missed the last seven games with a rib injury and is questionable for tonight's tilt. Donovan Mitchell missed Game 4 with a calf injury and isn't expected to be available tonight. Even Caris LeVert -- who replaced Mitchell in the lineup for Game 4 -- is now dealing with a knee injury and is questionable to play as well.

Can the Celtics seal the deal at home tonight, where they went 37-4 during the regular season? Or -- as we saw too often throughout the season -- will they let their guard down against a vulnerable foe?

Let's check out the NBA Odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and see how the market feels about this Eastern Conference Semi-Finals matchup.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Betting Odds

Date and Time: Wednesday, May 15th at 7:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Celtics -16 (-110)

Total: 204.5

Moneyline:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: +980
  • Boston Celtics: -1800

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

  • Cleveland Cavaliers:
    • nERD: 58.8 (10th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 114.6 (18th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.6 (7th)
    • Pace: 97.5 (24th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 39-42-1
  • Boston Celtics:
    • nERD: 80.8 (1st)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
    • Pace: 97.7 (19th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Best Bet

Under 205.5 Points (-108)

The Celtics were the most productive offense in the league this season. They averaged the second-most raw points per game and finished with the best adjusted offensive rating in the league. But the playoffs are a different beast, and they've really slowed their game down since then.

In their 9 postseason appearances, Boston is averaging 107.6 points per game -- down from the 120.6 points per game they averaged this year. They've recorded a 90.9 possession-per-48 pace, tied for the second-slowest rate of any team in the postseason. For reference, the slowest-paced team in the regular season (the New York Knicks) had a 95.2-possession pace.

On the flip side, they've done a pretty fantastic job keeping their foes off the scoreboard. The Celtics have held their opponents under 100 points in 6 of their 9 games and have kept the Cavaliers to 102 points per game so far in the series.

The Cavs managed 102 points without Mitchell in Game 4, but that outing required Max Strus shooting 5-of-9 on his 3-pointers. Strus should still see plenty of long ball attempts tonight, but we can't expect him to continue shooting 55.6% from the arc. He hit 50% in just one other game this postseason and sank 35.1% of his attempts during the regular season. And with the Celtics corralling a dominant 85% of their defensive rebounding opportunities, the Cavs could really suffer if those attempts don't go in on the first try.

The Celtics are set up for a very favorable game script here. Their opponent's best players are banged up and unlikely to play, while they are relatively healthy. They are fresh off back-to-back road wins and now get a home game at the TD Garden, where they hardly dropped a game during the season. They should be able to slow tonight's game down and win without running up the scoreboard.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Prop Bet

Jayson Tatum Under 29.5 Points (-105)

Jayson Tatum scored 33 points in each of the Celtics' road victories over the Cavs last week but scored just 43 combined points in their previous two outings. Those two 33-pointers were actually his first 30-plus performances of the playoffs. After averaging 26.9 points per game during the regular season, he's posting 24.2 points per game this postseason.

That lines up with how the Celtics have slowed things down, as we discussed above. His usage hasn't dipped all that much -- he's at 29.5%, down from 30.2% during the season -- but the overall play volume has decreased.

While his usage rate hasn't changed much in the transition from regular to postseason, the way the Celtics are using him has slightly altered.

During the regular season, Tatum took 42.7% of his field goal attempts from the 3-point range. Since the start of the postseason, just 35% of his field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc. With Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup, it seems like the Celtics are asking Tatum to play more of a traditional power forward role. He's playing closer to the boards, which is also illustrated by his spike from 8.1 rebounds per game to 10.4 per game this postseason.

Tatum is still a star and is more than capable of exceeding his 29.5-point line for tonight's game, but between the team's slowed-down pace and his slight transition out of a 3-point-shooting role, I see him finishing Game 5 under 29.5 points.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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