FootballWhispers: "David converted 103 goals from an xG of just 63.5 during his time at Lille — finishing roughly 40 goals above expectation — and his two-footedness means defenders cannot simply shepherd him onto a weaker side." SportsInteraction: "He's averaging just over two shots on target per World Cup game and is Canada's primary penalty taker." Copa América + Gold Cup: goal or assist in 8 of 9 games for Canada when the stakes were highest.

RotoWire explicit: "Jonathan David confirmed up top alongside Cyle Larin. He is the value scorer on the card at +190. He is Canada's most reliable finisher and the likeliest man to get the goal in a 1-0 or 2-0, and plus money on the striker in a game Canada should control is a cleaner play than laying their moneyline." ESPN confirms +165 on FanDuel; Heavy.com lists +175 as the FD anytime price — shop for best available. 3 WC goals, hat-trick vs Qatar (8 shots, 5 on target, xG 2.96), 39 international goals, Canada's PK taker. South Africa scored only once from open play in 3 WC games. $10→$26.50.

FootballWhispers explicitly lists "David to score or assist" as one of their three primary David props, calling it "the most forgiving of the bunch for a forward who, when Canada scores, tends to have a hand in it." Between the 2024 Copa América and 2025 Gold Cup, David had a goal or assist in 8 of 9 games for Canada when the stakes were highest. Even in games where he doesn't score, he draws fouls, creates danger and pulls defenders, generating assists through link-up with Larin. Check FD for the exact G/A price — likely around +100 to +110. $10→~$20.50.

FootballWhispers: "David attempting four or more shots carries plenty of appeal at 6/5 (2.20), given he managed three attempts in just 61 minutes against a well-organised Bosnia side and eight against Qatar across a full 90." Against South Africa's compact 4-2-3-1 — a team that held less than 32% possession against South Korea — David operating centrally against a deep block will see consistent shot volume regardless of whether he scores. Shots on target and raw shots are the cleanest volume props regardless of game outcome. Check FD. $10→~$22.

ESPN confirms +425 FGS on FanDuel. As Canada's primary penalty taker, David has a direct FGS route if Canada win an early penalty — South Africa's defensive shape under pressure (that 2-0 loss to Mexico) makes fouls in the area plausible. He scored the first goal during his Qatar hat-trick. FGS voids if 0-0 but given Canada's quality, a 0-0 here is less likely than a typical cagey knockout. $10→$52.50.

ESPN confirms +1000 FD for David 2+ goals. This is a genuine dart. David scored a hat-trick against Qatar with an xG of 2.96 in 90 minutes — showing his ability to pile on goals against weaker opposition. FootballWhispers: David "converted 103 goals from an xG of just 63.5 during his time at Lille — roughly 40 goals above expectation." He has the clinical finishing instinct to turn 3-4 big chances in a dominant Canada performance into two separate goals. Small stake only. $5→$55.

FootballWhispers: "With Alphonso Davies expected to start his first game of the tournament and stretch South Africa's backline from the left, David should find even more space to operate through the middle." When Davies is active, South Africa's right-back Mudau faces a genuine pace problem on the left. That pins defenders wide, creating exactly the half-spaces David operates in most effectively. Every Davies minute on the pitch is a David prop multiplier. Bet365: "Davies is expected to make his first start of the 2026 World Cup and could take up a more advanced position to keep Richie Laryea in the side."