The anchor prop in this game. Vinicius has scored in all three of Brazil's group stage matches. Vinicius Junior is +155 to find the net anytime, the shortest price on the board and the most likely to deliver. With Raphinha missing (hamstring), Vinicius Júnior is Brazil's primary attacking outlet on the left, with no competition for service from that channel.

Vinicius Junior leads the way with four goals and is the anytime goalscorer favourite. Japan's right back position has been vulnerable to direct wide play throughout the group stage — Hiroki Ito is excellent as a centre-back but has been forced wider by Brazil's shape, and the space behind him when he pushes up is exactly the kind of channel that Vini exploits at Real Madrid repeatedly.

The score-or-assist market gives you a safety net — it lands whether Vinicius scores himself or sets up Cunha, Rayan or another Brazil attacker. Even in matches where he doesn't score, Vinicius consistently drags defenders wide and creates space for others.

Bruno Guimarães has three assists so far but is still well priced for another assist. But the primary chance-creator from wide is Vinicius, whose ball-carrying draws fouls, forces blocks, and creates rebound situations for runners arriving late. Brazil have scored 7 goals in 3 group games, and Vinicius has been involved directly or indirectly in the majority of them.

The first goalscorer market offers significantly better value at +360 — more than double the payout of anytime. Vinicius scored the opening goal against Morocco in Matchday 1, and has scored first-half goals in 2 of 3 games. Brazil's game plan is to press high and score early; Vinicius Júnior is their most explosive outlet for converting that pressure.

Brazil's attacking depth and Japan's need to take risks if they fall behind creates a scenario where goals are likely on both sides. A first Vinicius goal in the 20-40 minute window is well within his pattern of play — he loves to cut inside from wide and shoot early when defenders haven't yet locked down on him.

The shots-on-target market is the safest Vinicius prop. He had at least one shot on target in every single group stage match. Even if he doesn't score, Brazil's shape puts him in wide attacking positions repeatedly, and his inclination to cut inside and shoot means the 1+ SOT line lands more often than not.

There's an interesting OddsBoost on Betfair offering 5/2 (3.50) for him to have 2+ shots on target and be fouled 2+ times. The bet has landed once in three games but he's been there or thereabouts — he's been fouled twice in two of three and also had two shots on target in the same ratio, so he's been knocking on the door constantly. The FanDuel 1+ SOT will likely price around -160 to -200, making it the safety play for bettors who want a near-certainty at reduced payout.

Vinicius scored twice in the 3-0 win over Haiti and could do so again if this match opens up. Multiple analysts project a Brazil 3-1 scoreline — in a higher-scoring game, Vinicius is the most likely to get multiple touches because he is Brazil's primary wide attacker from the left.

At +2500, the market is asking whether Vini can turn elite involvement into actual goals. That is the fair concern. He is more creator-slash-chaos agent than penalty-box poacher, but Brazil's path and his match-winning ceiling give this number legitimate each-way appeal.