Germany vs Paraguay: Prediction, Picks, Lineups & Best Bets

World Cup 2026 Round of 32 · Preview · Team News · Goalscorer Props · FanDuel odds

📖 Match Preview

Julian Nagelsmann's Germany arrive as comfortable favourites after topping Group E convincingly — a 7-1 rout of Curaçao and a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast — before rotating heavily and losing 2-1 to Ecuador in a dead-rubber final group game. That result ended an 11-game winning streak, but Nagelsmann has been clear the Ecuador loss meant nothing in context. The Musiala-Wirtz-Havertz attacking triangle averaged well over 2.0 xG per game in the group stage and generated the joint-highest shots on target total (7.3 per game) of any team.

Paraguay are the story of the round. They were thrashed 4-1 by the USA in their opener — then completely transformed. Back-to-back clean sheets against Turkey (1-0) and Australia (0-0) followed, with Gustavo Alfaro switching to a defensive low-block that frustrated both sides. They qualified as one of the eight best third-place teams, and the side Germany face looks nothing like the one that conceded four to the USA.

Germany want the ball and space to combine through Wirtz and Musiala in the half-spaces, while Paraguay will sit in a compact 4-4-2 mid-block and look to spring Miguel Almirón (back from suspension) and Julio Enciso on the counter. Paraguay's only group-stage goal came from a set piece — and without Diego Gómez suspended, they lose their primary set-piece taker, which weakens both their corner/free-kick threat and midfield pressing structure.

Germany's last eight games all went over 2.5 goals — but Paraguay's last five went under 2.5. That genuine conflict is the most interesting betting market in this game.

🩺 Team News & Injuries

📋 Predicted Lineups

📊 Key Stats & Context

⭐ Best Bets — FanDuel

All odds FanDuel Sportsbook · Germany ML -265 / Paraguay +800 / Draw +480 · Germany advance -750 / Paraguay advance +490 · O2.5 -137 / U2.5 +106 · BTTS Yes +108 / No -143 · GER -1.5 AH -104 / PRY +1.5 AH -120 · Germany 4-2-3-1: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rüdiger, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlović; Musiala, Undav, Wirtz; Havertz (Racing Post / DailySports) · Paraguay 4-4-2: Gill; Cáceres, Balbuena, Velázquez, J.Alonso; Almirón, Galarza, Cubas, Mauricio; Enciso, Avalos (SportGambler / Sports Mole) · Schlotterbeck OUT tournament · Nathaniel Brown probable · Diego Gómez SUSPENDED · Alderete knee doubt · Sosa muscle doubt · Almirón BACK from suspension · Germany: W7-1 CUR · W2-1 CIV · L1-2 ECU · Paraguay: L1-4 USA · W1-0 TUR · D0-0 AUS · R16 M90 Jul 4 1PM ET — GER/PRY winner vs SA/Canada winner · QF M97 Jul 9 · Mostly sunny ~80°F Gillette Stadium Foxborough MA · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER