Best NBA Finals Bet and Prediction for Game 7 Between the Pacers and Thunder

It all comes down to this -- Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

With the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder tied 3-3, Sunday's Game 7 will decide the 2024-25 NBA Championship.

One game for all the marbles.

Ahead of Game 7, here are the Pacers-Thunder odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Which bets stand out tonight for Game 7 of the Pacers-Thunder NBA Finals? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds and see where we can find value.

Pacers at Thunder NBA Finals Game 7 Betting Picks

Pacers +7.5 (-110)

Just when it looked like the Pacers were out, they pulled us right back in. Following a decisive Game 6 victory which saw the Thunder starters sit the entirety of the fourth quarter, Indiana heads to OKC with renewed life. While I can't quite get there with the Pacers moneyline (+250), they've proven more than capable of covering as 7.5-point 'dogs.

Granted, this is a mark Indiana covered just once in their three losses to OKC this series. And of their seven postseason losses, five have come by double-digits.

Even so, Indiana's Game 6 performance was jarring. We could chalk that up to a horrific Thunder showing from beyond the arc (8-30; 27%), but I don't think that's giving the Pacers enough credit for their own adjustments -- and it's not like they shot the lights out from three, either (15-42; 36%).

In Game 6, the Pacers flipped the script on defense. Instead of picking up the Thunder ball-handlers full-court -- something they've done consistently this postseason -- Indiana opted to sit back and let OKC walk it up at their own pace. Andrew Nembhard still stuck to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander like glue, but he proved much more effective in a half-court setting. With Nembhard as his primary defender, SGA shot just 4-10 from the floor and turned the ball over five times.

A lot of those turnovers came as a result of Indiana's help defense. But instead of OKC swinging the ball around and finding open shooters, the Thunder funneled SGA a series-high 37.7% usage rate.

The result? Eight total turnovers for the league MVP, and a postseason-high 20.8% turnover rate for the Thunder as a whole.

In fact, Oklahoma City's three highest turnover rate games of the playoffs have come in the last four games of this series.

On the flip side, Indiana's 10.9% turnover rate in Game 6 was their lowest mark of the series. The Pacers are 12-1 this postseason when their turnover rate is 14% or lower. In turn, OKC only managed 11 fastbreak points in Game 6. Of their seven playoff losses, five have come when they've failed to score at least 15% of their total points via the fastbreak.

That's the key to the game, as far as I'm concerned.

And sure, we can expect the Thunder to shoot better at home. They've made 37.5% of their home three-point attempts in the playoffs, compared to just 29.9% on the road.

But Indiana has done an excellent job limiting Oklahoma City's attempts from beyond the arc -- four of the Thunder's six lowest three-point attempt rate games in the postseason have come in this series. They've averaged just 32.7 three-point attempts per game at home against the Pacers. In the first three rounds, that number was up over 36 per game.

All that's to say the Pacers have a real shot to win outright in Game 7. But at -110 odds for Indiana to cover 7.5 points, banking on them at least keeping things close is my best bet for Game 7.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.