Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets for the GOVX 200 in Phoenix

In FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds for Phoenix, we've got a Big Three at the top.

Justin Allgaier (+380), Aric Almirola (+400), and Alex Bowman (+500) are the lone drivers shorter than +1000 to win. Almirola and Bowman are veterans of the Cup Series, and Allgaier won the championship at this track last year, so it makes sense.

I think two of them are overvalued, though, creating some enticing bets down the board.

I have no issues with Almirola, who was dominant on short, flat tracks both in Cup and last year in Xfinity.

Allgaier did snag that championship and should have won this race last year, but overall, he hasn't won in Phoenix since 2019 despite facing -- at times -- fields weaker than this one.

As for Bowman, he's driving a Hendrick car in Xfinity. Even with elite drivers, that car has won just twice in 19 races since the start of 2022 with one of their Cup regulars in the car. Looking at just ovals, they have one win, and it came in a race where Chase Elliott had a ninth-place average running position. They're fast, but not being a regular team in Xfinity -- like Almirola's -- has its drawbacks.

Thus, I think we can take swipes at longshots again this weekend.

Here's what my model's simulations have for the field prior to practice and qualifying. Then, below, we'll run through my favorite bets at FanDuel.

NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix Predictions

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks for Phoenix

• Austin Hill (+2000): The short, flat tracks definitely aren't Hill's best. However, he was fourth in this race last year and had a fifth-place average running position in both 2023 Phoenix races. I'm not overly high on him -- 5.5% win odds is a low mark relative to his baseline -- but +2000 is too long for Hill.
• Christian Eckes (+5500): There's a very good chance my model is too high on Eckes. However, it's up there for three reasons:
  • Eckes shredded short, flat tracks in the Truck Series with a 2023 Phoenix win on top of two wins in Martinsville last year with runner-ups in Gateway, IRP, and Richmond, and podiums in Milwaukee and Phoenix.
  • Kaulig Racing's equipment is likely being underrated after they had two drivers last year -- Josh Williams and Shane Van Gisbergen -- who were overmatched on ovals.
  • Both Joe Gibbs Racing and JR Motorsports have a handful of inexperienced drivers on their rosters this year, opening win equity for other teams.
  • To me, that's enough to justify betting Eckes at +5500 even if 6.4% likely oversells his true upside.

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Which bets stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.