3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Thursday 8/14/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

Even with the Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians both scoring a run in the first inning against each other on Wednesday, I'll take a NRFI to occur in Thursday's matchup.

At the moment, Edward Cabrera (13-7 NRFI record) and Tanner Bibee (17-6 NRFI record) will be on the mound in the third and final game of the series.

Among pitchers with 10-plus starts in 2025, Cabrera owns the 24th-best xFIP (3.15), 25th-best WHIP (1.00), 21st-lowest walk rate (5.0%), and 12th-highest strikeout rate (32.5%) in the first inning. With Cabrera totaling only 13 hits allowed, 4 earned runs allowed, and 28 Ks across his last four starts, I have confidence he can record three quick outs versus a Cleveland team that has the eighth-worst wOBA (.298) and ninth-worst wRC+ (91) over the last 14 days.

As good as Cabrera has been in the opening inning, Bibee has arguably been better, registering the 13th-best xFIP (2.88) and 18th-highest strikeout rate (30.9%) in the first inning among pitchers with 10-plus starts this season. While Bibee has experienced some issues in recent outings, the Marlins have the ninth-highest NRFI rate (75.4%) on the road up to this point.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

When looking at the talented pitchers on the Philadelphia Phillies, Jesus Luzardo (18-6 NRFI record) boasts the best xFIP (2.68) and lowest walk rate (4.0%) in the first inning of the bunch. Following his last start where he surrendered a run in the opening frame, Luzardo should get back on track in the NRFI category against a Washington Nationals squad that has the fifth-worst wOBA (.302), seventh-worst wRC+ (92), seventh-worst ISO (.143), and seventh-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) in the last 30 days.

Luzardo should also be aided by the fact that the Nationals are likely going to have at least two lefties hitting inside the top three of their batting order. On the season, Luzardo is logging a .215 wOBA, 1.61 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9, and 42.1% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters (compared to a .336 wOBA, 3.91 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 1.08 HR/9, and 22.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters).

Although it's a small sample for Brad Lord (8-2 NRFI record), he's posting a formidable 3.57 xFIP in the first inning while he's yet to surrender a homer in the opening frame. There's no doubt the Philadelphia Phillies' top-of-the-order sluggers can do damage at any moment, but Philly has also tallied the 12th-worst wOBA (.312), 13th-worst wRC+ (102), and 4th-highest strikeout rate (28.1%) in the first inning over the last 30 days.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

After getting a YRFI in Wednesday's clash between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, there's a chance we see at least one run scored in the opening frame on Thursday.

For starters, Bryce Elder (10-9 NRFI record) has struggled in the first inning to the tune of a 5.20 xFIP, .345 BABIP, 1.89 WHIP, and 15.7% walk rate.

While Elder has gone two straight starts without ceding a run in the opening inning, those instances came against the Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, and he's still allowed three-plus earned runs in seven of his last nine outings. In addition to the Mets producing the 14th-best wOBA (.329), 11th-best wRC+ (115), and 10th-best ISO (.203) in the first inning this season, they also have the sixth-highest YRFI rate (36.1%) at home.

Since the All-Star break, Kodai Senga (14-4 NRFI record) has been a bit shaky on the bump, giving up 15 hits, 12 earned runs, and 14 walks across his last four starts. Given Senga's lack of control with his eighth-percentile walk rate (12.0%), he could get himself into plenty of trouble early against a Braves squad that has the highest walk rate (13.3%) in the first inning over the last 30 days of action.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.