3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 8/14/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Kyle Stowers hasn't launched a home run since August 3, but tonight's meeting with the Cleveland Guardians is a good opportunity for the Miami Marlins' outfielder to go yard.

Cleveland is putting Tanner Bibee on the mound, and he's surrendered five home runs over his previous four starts. This is in line with some other alarming numbers -- such as allowing 1.51 home runs per nine innings pitched. He has meh stats elsewhere, including the 53rd and 60th percentiles of barrel and hard-hit percentages allowed.

Stowers should have several advantages in this matchup. First off, he bats .294 against right-handed hurlers compared to .258 when facing southpaws. Stowers has also hit 24 of his 25 home runs against righties. He's even batting over .260 against Bibee's five most-used pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, sweeper, sinker, and changeup.

As mentioned Bibee is allowing a fair share of dingers this season, and Stowers ranks in the 97th, 91st, and 88th percentiles of barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed. If a slugger on the Marlins is going to expose Bibee, I like Stowers' chances.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+230)

The Washington Nationals are putting an inexperienced hurler on the mound in Brad Lord, giving the Philadelphia Phillies an angle to rake. Game lines have the Phillies' team total set at -140 to go over 4.5 runs. With Philadelphia holding the ninth-highest SLG, we should expect some of its power hitters to succeed if its to go over the run total.

With that said, Kyle Schwarber is always a threat to hit one over the fence with a team-best 42 big flies. Furthermore, he ranks in 99th percentiles of xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel rate while sitting in the 100th percentile of hard-hit percentage and 98th percentile of bat speed. Simply put, Schwarber is one of the best sluggers baseball has to offer.

While Lord is ceding only 0.74 home runs per nine innings, his inexperience still raises questions. He's primarily been a reliever with only 10 starts under his belt and gave up a homer in his last two appearances as a starter.

Schwarber is hitting .294, .156, and .309 against Lord's three most-used pitches (four seamer, slider, and sinker). While his slider batting average is alarming, Schwarber still has the stuff to mash against heaters with 26 of his 42 homers coming against four-seam fastballs and sinkers.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+290)

In a meeting between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies, winds will be blowing out to right field -- drawing my attention to left-handed hitters. Bradley Blalock will be on the bump for the Rockies, and the righties' 7.89 ERA, 5.32 SIERA, and 5.16 xFIP all point to a favorable matchup for Arizona's left-handed hitters.

The Diamondbacks have their fair share of lefties in the lineup, including the switch hitter Ketel Marte. Most of his success has come against right-handed hurlers, batting .321 in the split compared to .254 when facing lefties. He's even hit 17 of his 23 home runs against right-handers.

After hitting a big fly in his last two appearances, Marte has a great chance of keeping this hot streak alive on Thursday. He hits a blistering .345 when facing four-seam fastballs, and Blalock heavily relies on the pitch with a 45.7% usage rate. Marte is even raking to the tune of .292 and .400 against Blalock's second and third-most used tools (splitter and curveball).

We have all of the usual numbers to look at, as well. Blalock is in the 31st and 22nd percentiles of barrel and hard-hit rates allowed, and Marte sits in the 90th, 77th, and 87th percentiles of barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed. With Blalock allowing 1.87 home runs per nine innings pitched, Marte could take advantage of those winds pushing to the right field.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.