Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the YellaWood 500 in Talladega

With just two races left in the Round of 8, Team Penske is behind the 8-ball.

Both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are at least 24 points behind the cutline to advance to the Championship Race in Phoenix, putting the team's chances at a fourth consecutive title in doubt.

Luckily for them, they can advance via a win. And Talladega may be just what the doctor ordered.

Their teammate, Austin Cindric, won the spring race here, and Blaney won at Daytona in August. This is the team to beat on superspeedways. Both Blaney and Logano are three-time winners at the track, so if anybody can convert in a must-win spot, it's them.

And I do think we can justify betting on it this week, as well.

Let's dig into how my model is viewing things for Sunday's race first. Then, we can lay out which drivers are values for me in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Penske fans will likely be happy with the returns.

NASCAR Predictions for Talladega

NASCAR Betting Picks for Talladega

Joey Logano to Win (+1100)

I'd love to be in a place where my model cared about motivation and incentives. That'd be a huge help in a race like this where all of Ford is going to try to will either Logano or Blaney to victory.

Even without that factored in, though, those guys are the two favorites, and both are betting values for me. So, we're going to take a "Why not both?" approach to betting it.

Let's start with Logano, who has the slight edge in the sims. Both of Logano's pack-track wins in the Next-Gen era have come in Atlanta, which is very different from Talladega. He has, though, led 19-plus laps in four straight Talladega races, including this spring. He crossed the finish line third in that one but was later disqualified after failing inspection.

That -- to me -- shows he's still got the skills that helped him get all those Talladega wins back in the day. And again, this whole manufacturer has incentive to aid him and Blaney. The front-running nature puts the model on Logano, and the subjective bump due to the situation helps me feel even better about it.

Ryan Blaney to Win (+1100)

Between the two, Blaney has been better at keeping his nose clean recently on these tracks, which is definitely appealing.

In 23 Next-Gen races on pack tracks, Blaney has two wins, three more runner-ups, and nine total top-fives. One of the wins and two of the runner-ups came at Talladega, so he's likely the strongest driver at this track in this new car.

Blaney in recent years has developed a habit of winning when his back is against the wall. He has won at Martinsville each of the past two seasons to advance to the Championship Race, and his 2023 Talladega win got him into the Round of 8. He'll benefit from Ford's push just as much as Logano will, so I think both are great options at their current odds.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.