Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Go Bowling at the Glen in Watkins Glen

The betting market has always loved Shane Van Gisbergen on road courses.

It has reached new levels this week.

For Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen, Van Gisbergen is +125 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. It's effectively an unheard-of number in the Cup Series.

And it's actually a value for me.

I've got Van Gisbergen at 46.1% to win, up from 44.4% implied at +125. I don't want to bet him at that number (though I would happily do so at +140 or longer), but I understand why the model is so high on him. SVG has won four of six road-course races he has run with Trackhouse Racing, and he nearly won here last year while driving for Kaulig. He's a sicko.

But given my model may be undervaluing youngster Connor Zilisch, I prefer to live in the non-outright markets to start. Let's dig into what my full sims say about the week before practice, and then we can outline my favorite bets as things stand.

NASCAR Predictions for Watkins Glen

NASCAR Betting Picks for Watkins Glen

Chase Elliott to Finish Top 5 (+180)

Chase Elliott is rounding back into form on road courses, having finished top-five in four of the past five races on this track type. When you put him at easily his best of the bunch, I'm not gonna lay off.

Elliott won here in dominant fashion in 2018 and 2019, was runner-up in 2021, and finished fourth in 2022. The past two years have underwhelmed, but as mentioned, his form is back on the ascent.

In 2025, specifically, Elliott's lone non-top-five at a road course came in Chicago, which is as different from Watkins Glen as you can get. That's why my model has him at 40.3% for a top-five, up from 35.7% implied at +180. I'm also showing value on William Byron (+170) and Christopher Bell (+190) in this same market if you want extra swipes.

Ryan Blaney to Finish Top 10 (+330)

The speed of Watkins Glen makes it more equipment-centric than other road courses, which provides a boost for Ryan Blaney in a Penske car. He has been strong enough this year for me to think he can cash this ticket.

Blaney has opened the year with a top-20 average running position in all four road course races. His lone mark outside the top 15 came in Sonoma, when he got pushed off track while running well inside the top 10.

Blaney has finished top 10 in 3 of 8 career races at Watkins Glen, a 37.5% rate. His implied odds at +330 are 23.3%. He does get a downgrade in my model because Penske's general form on road courses has been poor the past two years, but even with that, it still has him at 27.3%. Blaney's general speed on road courses this year is good enough for me to back him.

Ryan Preece to Finish Top 10 (+350)

Before joining RFK Racing, Ryan Preece would often have speed on road courses, but he'd fail to convert it into a finish. This year has been different, and I like him quite a bit as a result.

Preece has run four road-races with his new team. He has had a top-17 average running position in all of them, and he finished top-15 in three. That includes a seventh-place finish in Chicago.

Entering 2025, Preece had two career top-10s on road courses. One of those actually came in Watkins Glen when he finished ninth with Stewart-Haas Racing last year. Now that we've seen he has the equipment to compete, he should be able to duplicate that performance.

I've got Preece at 30.0% to finish top 10, up from 22.2% implied. This is currently my favorite bet on the board.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.