Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway

The first three NASCAR Cup Series races at Gateway have been pretty tough to predict.

None of the three winners -- Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, or Austin Cindric -- entered the weekend atop the odds board. That leads to my model viewing this track as somewhat volatile, flattening out the distribution of win equity.

As a result, I'm primarily showing value in longshots in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. I don't necessarily want to chase all of that value, but I do think we can find ways to exploit the unpredictability.

Let's start by digging into those pre-practice sims, and then we can discuss which bets I like early in the week.

NASCAR Predictions for Gateway

NASCAR Betting Picks for Gateway

Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 5 (+500)

Gateway was one of Carson Hocevar's best intermediate races last year as he finished eighth. With Spire Motorsports' form much better now than it was then, I think we can get aggressive with Hocevar here.

Gateway is the site of Hocevar's Cup debut. He was running well, filling in for Corey LaJoie, until a tire issue ended his day. It seems like Hocevar has a good feel for this track in a Cup car.

In 2025, Hocevar has a runner-up in Nashville, along with top-10 runs in Indianapolis, Iowa, and Darlington, all of which are unique shapes, similar to Gateway. He also had a 10th-place average running position in Pocono, another track with flat, sweeping turns.

I've got value on Hocevar to win at +3500, and I don't mind sprinkling a bit on that. But he's 22.1% to finish top 5 for me, well above market at 16.7%, so this is a nice way to add some flexibility.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+700)

Hendrick Motorsports has been pretty hideous on flat tracks, which may make backing Alex Bowman feel odd. Bowman has been the exception, though, and he's undervalued this week.

In addition to finishing runner-up in Richmond, Bowman logged top-10s in Iowa and Indianapolis, other flat tracks. He was also seventh in Phoenix toward the start of the year.

Bowman has yet to finish better than 13th in Gateway, but some of that is due to bad luck. Given his form, I'm expecting a better showing this time around, and he's a quality value both to finish top 5 and to win (+4500) for me.

Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+380)

Most of Legacy MC's speed uptick has come on faster tracks, so backing Erik Jones at Gateway may feel odd. There have been some positives, though, that make me think +380 is too long.

The big one came in Nashville. That's not a flat track, necessarily, but it's not high-banked, either. There, Jones had a ninth-place average running position and finished seventh.

He backed that up in Pocono, which is high-speed but is super flat. There, Jones finished 13th and ran around there all day.

Once you add in the pace the team had in Darlington, it's clear they're reaching a new level, and based on Nashville and Pocono, it seems like that translates to flat tracks. As a result, I think Jones is a worthwhile gamble at +380, given we don't need him to spike and are still getting relatively long odds.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+750)

Daniel Suarez checks all the wrong boxes for Gateway:

• On his way out at Trackhouse Racing
• His replacement is already lined up
• His two teammates are fighting for their lives in the playoffs

He's not getting any attention here, nor should he.

Still, Suarez is coming off a strong run in Richmond, the most recent flat track on the schedule. He also was competitive in Pocono and Nashville, meaning he checks similar boxes to Jones.

Last year, the flatter tracks were good to Suarez as he had top-10s in Phoenix, Iowa, Indianapolis, and Richmond. He was also seventh at Gateway in 2023.

I think the model is too high on Suarez as it puts his top-10 odds at 20.2%. But the gap between that and the market (11.8%) is massive, so I'll still back him even if I'm not overly enthused about doing so.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.