Argentina vs Austria Predictions: Who Will Score the First Goal in Today's World Cup Match

Chris Beck

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Argentina vs Austria Predictions: Who Will Score the First Goal in Today's World Cup Match

Argentina vs Austria First Goal Scorer Odds, Picks & Best Bets — World Cup 2026 Monday Group J | FanDuel

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🏟️ TODAY 1:00 PM ET · AT&T STADIUM · ARLINGTON · FOX / TELEMUNDO

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group J · Matchday 2 · First Goalscorer Market

Argentina vs Austria: First Goal Scorer Odds, Picks & Best Bets

Messi +290 (CBS FanDuel explicit · scored first in 9 of 11 WC matches where he netted · opened scoring 17' vs Algeria · vs Laimer makeshift RB) · Álvarez ~+420 (confirmed CF starter · 2022 WC first-goal scorer) · Sabitzer ~+1100 (AUT · scored first in 5 of last 10 Austrian games). All odds FanDuel Sportsbook.

Monday June 22, 2026 · All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook · Confirm XI at kickoff · Must be 21+

🇦🇷

Argentina ML

-185

Draw

+310

Austria ML

+550

⚽

Over 2.5

-108

🔄 Team News & First-Goal Context

🌟 Messi +290 first goal (CBS FD confirmed) · scored first in 9 of 11 WC matches where he netted as the opening goal · opened vs Algeria at 17' · 🔄 Álvarez starts as CF (Lautaro bench) · Posch OUT · Laimer at makeshift RB · 🇦🇹 Sabitzer scored first in 5 of Austria's last 10 games (Racing Post) · 📊 Argentina scored first in 7 of their last 8 matches · Messi 17' vs Algeria

⭐ Messi +290 FD (CBS explicit) · 9/11 WC first-goal rate · opened vs Algeria 17' · $10 → $39 Álvarez ~+420 (CF value) · Almada ~+950 ($5 dart) · Sabitzer ~+1100 AUT ($5) · CF ~+900 AUT ($5)

⚡ First Goal vs Anytime — The Logic For This Match

📊 Three Structural Reasons to Play the First Goal Market in This Match

1. Messi Scores First in His WC Goals — The Extraordinary Stat

Sportscasting: "Messi opened the scoring in the 17th minute and has now scored in nine of 11 World Cup matches where he found the net as the opening goal." When Messi scores at all in a WC match, he scores first about 82% of the time. Combined with his all-time record ambition and his 17th-minute opener vs Algeria, the first-goal market is not just a longer-odds version of his anytime bet — it reflects a genuine historical scoring pattern at the World Cup.

2. The ~2.8× Multiplier — First Goal Pays Significantly More

Messi at -105 anytime vs +290 first goal = 2.76× premium. Álvarez at ~+175 anytime vs ~+420 first goal = ~2.4×. Almada at ~+400 vs ~+950 = ~2.4×. The first goal market pays nearly three times as much for the same underlying scoring ability, because only one of 22 players scores first. In a match where Argentina are overwhelmingly expected to score first (as they did vs Algeria), the first-goal market concentrates maximum value on the Argentine players most likely to deliver it.

3. Sabitzer Has Scored First in 5 of Austria's Last 10 Games

Racing Post confirms: "Marcel Sabitzer has scored the first goal in five of Austria's last ten games." Austria's Rangnick press seeks to strike early — they scored first vs Jordan (Schmid 13'). If Austria catch Argentina during the opening exchanges with their press, Sabitzer's set-piece delivery or late midfield run provides the most structurally justified Austrian first-goal scenario at ~+1100 on FanDuel.

All first goalscorer odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Messi +290 CBS explicit · others estimated from anytime lines using ~2.2-2.8× multiplier · check FanDuel live board · Must be 21+.

⭐ Primary Pick: Messi First Goal +290

⭐ PRIMARY · CBS FANDUEL EXPLICIT · 9/11 WC MATCHES SCORES FIRST · 17' VS ALGERIA · VS LAIMER OOP RB

Lionel Messi First Goalscorer

16 WC goals = Klose · hat-trick vs Algeria · opened scoring 17' · PK taker · FK primary · faces Laimer (OOP) at RB

First Goal · FD

+290

CBS explicit · $10 → $39

Anytime FD

-105

2+ Goals

+550

CBS Sports EXPLICIT (FanDuel): "Messi is -105 as an anytime goal scorer and +290 as the first goal scorer" — confirmed FD board as of June 22, 2026 Sportscasting EXPLICIT: "Messi opened the scoring in the 17th minute and has now scored in nine of 11 World Cup matches where he found the net as the opening goal." 🔑 Posch OUT → Laimer at makeshift RB. Laimer doesn't naturally track Messi's first-goal movements (narrow right half-space drives, FK set pieces). The Laimer mismatch elevates both the anytime AND first-goal ceilings.

🎯 Three Arguments for Messi as First Goalscorer

9/11

WC first-goal rate

17'

Opened vs Algeria

+290

FD first goal

$39

$10 returns

Pattern (9/11): Sportscasting confirms that in 9 of 11 World Cup matches where he scores, Messi scores the first goal. That's an 82% first-goal rate within scoring games. Precedent (17' vs Algeria): He opened the scoring in the 17th minute vs Algeria — exactly the type of early probing run at Laimer that creates a first-goal opportunity. PK taker + all-time record: Austria's high press (2.7 bookings/game in qualifying) increases the probability of an early foul in the box. Messi stepping up for a first-half penalty = first goalscorer at +290. $10 returns $39.

First goal vs anytime: At +290 first goal vs -105 anytime, Messi's first goal pays 2.76× more. Given that he scores first in ~82% of WC matches where he scores at all, the first-goal market captures the most likely scenario of his scoring — at significantly better value than the anytime. CBS Sports confirms both prices from FanDuel's live board as of this morning.

Bet Messi First Goalscorer +290 at FanDuel Sportsbook · 1:00 PM ET Bet Now

💎 Value Pick: Álvarez First Goal ~+420

Julián Álvarez First Goalscorer · CF (4-3-3) · Atletico Madrid

Confirmed CF starter · 4 WC career goals · 2022 WC first-goal scorer · ~2.4× anytime premium · $10 → $52

First Goal · FD est.

~+420

$10→$52

Anytime FD

~+175

Confirmed starting CF today. SI: "Lautaro struggled against Algeria and was substituted shortly after halftime, so Álvarez could come into the starting XI." RotoWire confirms Álvarez as CF in 4-3-3. 4 WC career goals including in the 2022 WC semi-final vs Croatia (first goal of the match). His aggressive early pressing as a high CF creates first-goal opportunities before the opposition's defensive shape is settled. RotoWire penalties: "Messi, Lautaro, Álvarez" — second/third penalty option. Any early penalty not taken by Messi is an Álvarez first-goal opportunity. Combined Messi+Álvarez first-goal strategy: $10 each ($20 total) covers Argentina's two most dangerous first-goal routes.

Álvarez at ~+420 is the value first-goal pick. As the starting CF in the 4-3-3, he's the player most likely to receive early central passes in scoring positions. His aggressive pressing — characteristic under Simeone at Atletico — creates first-goal chances in the opening 20 minutes before Austria's defensive shape organises around Messi. In 2022 he scored the first goal of key WC matches from exactly this profile. $10 at ~+420 returns $52.

🎯 LW Dart: Almada First Goal ~+950 · Runs Behind Laimer (OOP)

LW in 4-3-3 · FK taker (RotoWire) · drives vs weakened AUT right flank · $5 dart → ~$52.50

First Goal FD est.

~+950

Almada confirmed LW in 4-3-3. RotoWire: FK taker for Argentina. Direct position faces Austria's weakened right flank (Laimer at makeshift RB). His early driving runs from LW are Argentina's most direct wide-area first-goal route.First-goal scenario: Argentina press from kickoff. Almada receives from Mac Allister early, drives at Laimer (hesitant), cuts inside and finishes in the opening 10 minutes. $5 at ~+950 → ~$52.50.

Almada at ~+950 first goal is the Argentine LW longshot dart. He runs directly into the space created by Posch's absence — Laimer covering the right-back channel without fullback defensive instincts. FK taker status (RotoWire) means a direct early free kick on the left could produce an opening-goal attempt. $5 at ~+950 returns ~$52.50.

🇦🇹 Austrian First Goal Picks — The Longshot Case

🇦🇹 AUSTRIAN FIRST GOAL PRIMARY · RACING POST: SCORED FIRST IN 5 OF LAST 10 AUT GAMES · #1 FK TAKER

Marcel Sabitzer First Goalscorer · LM · Man Utd

Austria primary FK taker · SoT in 7 of last 9 · LM drives into box · $5 dart → ~$60

First Goal FD est.

~+1100

Anytime FD

~+550

Racing Post EXPLICIT: "Marcel Sabitzer has scored the first goal in five of Austria's last ten games." Austria's #1 FK taker (4 per game, RotoWire) — all direct free kicks within scoring range go through him first. Austria scored first vs Jordan at 13' (Schmid).Scenario: Austria press high and win a free kick 25 metres out in the 8-15th minute. Sabitzer strikes directly past E.Martinez — Austria first goal. At ~+1100 on FanDuel, $5 returns ~$60. The most structurally defensible Austrian first-goal pick.

Sabitzer at ~+1100 is Austria's primary first-goal pick. The Racing Post stat (5 of 10 Austrian games opened by Sabitzer) is remarkable for a midfielder and gives him genuine first-goal credentials. Austria's Rangnick press generates early FK and transition opportunities — Sabitzer is the man who takes them. $5 at ~+1100 returns ~$60.

🇦🇹 CF Dart: Arnautovic / Kalajdzic First Goal ~+900+ · $5 Entertainment

AUT CF · confirm starter · counter-attack first goal or early PK · $5 dart → ~$50

First Goal FD est.

~+900

Austria scored first vs Jordan (13'). Rangnick presses from kickoff. If Austria's opening press creates a counter-break before Argentina settle their 4-3-3, and the CF is the first to receive in behind Romero/L.Martinez, ~+900 is the first-goal outcome. Arnautovic (if he starts) is Austria's PK taker — any early penalty = Arnautovic first goalscorer. $5 at ~+900 returns ~$50. Entertainment only.

📋 Full First Goalscorer Board — FanDuel Sportsbook

Player · Team · Role

Anytime

First Goal · FD

⭐ Lionel Messi · ARG RW (CBS FD EXPLICIT · 9/11 WC FIRST-GOAL RATE)

Hat-trick vs Algeria · opened scoring 17' · PK taker · vs Laimer OOP · $10→$39

-105

+290

💎 Julián Álvarez · ARG CF (CONFIRMED STARTER · VALUE)

4 WC career goals · 2022 WC first-goal scorer · aggressive CF pressing · $10→$52

~+175

~+420

Thiago Almada · ARG LW (FK taker · vs Laimer OOP · $5 dart)

LW in 4-3-3 · drives vs weakened AUT right flank · $5→~$52.50

~+400

~+950

Enzo Fernandez · ARG CM · De Paul · ARG CM

CM late arrivals · FK takers · Fernandez ~+500 anytime · $5 dart territory

~+500

~+1200

⭐ Marcel Sabitzer · AUT LM (RACING POST · 5/10 FIRST-GOAL RATE · #1 AUT FK TAKER)

Man Utd · 4 FK/corners/game (RotoWire) · SoT in 7 of last 9 · $5→~$60

~+550

~+1100

Arnautovic / Kalajdzic · AUT CF (confirm starter · PK/counter dart)

AUT PK taker (Arnautovic) · counter-break opener · $5→~$50

~+400

~+900

Mac Allister · ARG CM · Schmid · AUT RM · Chukwuemeka · AUT No.10

CM/RM positions · long-range shots and set pieces · $5 dart territory at +1400+

+500–600

~+1400+

First goalscorer odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Messi +290 CBS explicit · others estimated using ~2.2-2.8× anytime multiplier · check FanDuel live board · Must be 21+. Gamble responsibly.

📋 First Goalscorer Best Bets — Ranked · All Odds FanDuel Sportsbook

⭐ #1 — Messi (CBS FD confirmed · 9/11 WC first-goal rate · 17' vs Algeria)

+290 · $10→$39 · 2.76× anytime premium · most justified first-goal on the board

+290

💎 #2 — Álvarez (confirmed CF starter · 2022 WC opening-goal scorer · value)

~+420 · $10→$52 · 4 WC goals · aggressive CF pressing pattern

~+420

⭐ Austria pick — Sabitzer (Racing Post · 5/10 AUT first-goal rate · #1 FK taker · $5)

~+1100 · $5→~$60 · most structurally justified Austrian first-goal pick

~+1100

🎯 Almada dart (LW · FK taker · vs Laimer OOP · $5)

~+950 · $5→~$52.50 · LW driving run vs Austria's weakened right flank

~+950

🎯 Austria CF dart — Arnautovic / Kalajdzic ($5)

~+900 · $5→~$50 · AUT early counter-break or PK scenario

~+900

FanDuel Sportsbook — World Cup 2026 Group J · 1:00 PM ET Today · AT&T Stadium

Bet First Goalscorer — Argentina vs Austria

Messi +290 (CBS FD) · Álvarez ~+420 · Almada ~+950 ($5) · Sabitzer ~+1100 ($5) · CF ~+900 ($5)

Bet Now

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook · Messi +290 CBS confirmed · others estimated · check FanDuel live board · 1:00 PM ET June 22 · Must be 21+ · Play responsibly

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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