Fox Sports confirm Messi at +100 anytime and note he "found the net in six of Argentina's seven matches at the 2022 World Cup." Sports Interaction make the historical case: "Messi sits just a few goals shy of the all-time tournament scoring record, making him a near-automatic inclusion in any anytime goal market."

CBS Sports note Argentina "has started slow in the last two World Cups — losing to Saudi Arabia in 2022 and drawing Iceland in 2018" — making the opening goal even more critical tonight. If Argentina score first, the match is over. Messi, confirmed in Scaloni's training groups, starts alongside Lautaro in what is almost certainly his final World Cup. At +300 first / +100 anytime for the greatest player in World Cup history chasing Klose's all-time record, this is the most compelling first scorer narrative at the entire 2026 tournament.

Covers make Lautaro one of their explicit picks: "Lautaro Martinez will cause problems for Algeria at the back — I'll back Messi and Martinez to lead the defending champs to a multi-goal win." Squawka reinforce the quality: "The Inter striker finished as Serie A's top scorer with 17 goals in 30 games this season, and his movement gives Argentina a relentless focal point up top."

CBS Sports add the key detail: "Lautaro Martinez enters the competition in outstanding form following another prolific campaign with Inter Milan." Algeria's backline arrives with key CB Ramy Bensebaini already ruled out — their defensive structure is compromised before a ball is kicked. At +425 first / +145 anytime for the starting centre-forward of the world's #1 ranked team, fresh off a Serie A golden boot, facing an injury-hit defence, Lautaro is the sharp first scorer play tonight.

CBS Sports make the bold prediction: "Julián Álvarez may wind up being the biggest offensive force for Argentina at this World Cup. The Atletico Madrid star could emerge as the team's goalscoring centerpiece — with Messi perhaps not having quite as much speed in his legs anymore."

Squawka confirm his La Liga quality: "Álvarez added 8 goals and 4 assists in 29 La Liga outings for Atlético Madrid." The structural case is straightforward: Álvarez starts on the bench as confirmed first-choice sub, guaranteed meaningful minutes against a tiring Algeria defence. His anytime price of +160 is barely more than Lautaro's +145 starting price — yet his first scorer price of +450 is almost identical. Against a back line already missing Bensebaini, Álvarez's explosive pace off the bench in the second half attacking space behind a retreating Algeria is exactly the scenario this market is built for.

🔮 Prediction: Argentina 2-0 Algeria

First Goal: Lautaro +425 🇦🇷
Best Value · Messi +300 the narrative pick

Who is most likely to score first in Argentina vs Algeria?

Messi at +300 first / +100 anytime is the sentimental and structural pick — Fox Sports confirm he scored in 6 of 7 matches at the 2022 WC. Covers explicitly back Lautaro: "Martinez will cause problems for Algeria — I'll back Messi and Martinez to lead a multi-goal win." For pure value, Lautaro at +425 first scorer is the sharp play — Serie A Capocannoniere with 17 goals, facing an Algeria backline missing key CB Bensebaini through injury.

Why is Julián Álvarez +450 worth backing despite starting on the bench?

CBS Sports predict: "Álvarez may wind up being the biggest offensive force for Argentina at this World Cup — the Atletico Madrid star could emerge as the team's goalscoring centerpiece." He is confirmed first-choice sub, guaranteed 30+ minutes. His anytime price of +160 is barely more than Lautaro's starting price of +145. Squawka confirm "8 goals and 4 assists in 29 La Liga outings for Atlético." Fresh legs against a tired Algeria defence in the second half, with Bensebaini already injured, is exactly the scenario this bet is built for.

What are the Argentina vs Algeria FanDuel odds tonight?

Argentina are -240 favorites, Algeria at +650, draw at +360. Over/under 2.5 goals. Dimers give Argentina a 69% win probability. Argentina are the No. 1 FIFA ranked team and reigning World Champions. CBS confirm Argentina are -310 favorites to win Group J outright.

Is Messi starting tonight?

Yes. Multiple reports from Scaloni's training sessions confirm Messi in the projected starting XI alongside Lautaro Martínez. ESPN, OneFootball and World Soccer Talk all report Messi was part of the 10-man training group Scaloni organised before the match — widely read as the intended starters. Tonight could be Messi's 200th cap for Argentina.

What time and where is Argentina vs Algeria tonight?

9:00 PM ET at Kansas City Stadium (GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium) in Kansas City, Missouri. Airs on FOX and Telemundo. Group J alongside Austria and Jordan. Argentina are the defending champions; Algeria return to the World Cup for the first time since 2014.