Fox Sports confirm Haaland at -235 anytime and make the case in full: "Erling Haaland has scored 55 goals in 50 appearances for Norway, and has scored in 32 of those matches." CBS Sports expert Jon Eimer, on a 12-5-2 World Cup run, is even more bullish: "Look at Haaland to score a brace in this one, as Iraq will just be holding on for dear life and trying to weather the Viking storm."

Sports Interaction deliver the statistical argument: "Haaland scored 16 goals in World Cup qualifying, twice the tally of any other European player, and arrives at his first World Cup at the peak of his powers." PrizePicks list his 0.5 goals Over as a "Goblin" — their highest-confidence designation. OptaJoe confirm: "Erling Haaland scored twice as many goals as any other European player in qualifying for the 2026 World Cup." Iraq sit 57th in FIFA rankings and have not played World Cup football since 1986. At -235 for a player who scored in every single qualifying match against opposition that includes Italy, this is the highest-floor goalscorer pick on the entire Tuesday World Cup slate.

Goal.com make Sørloth their explicit third pick for this match: "At close to even-money, backing the towering striker to also get on the scoresheet rounds off our picks nicely." Fox Sports deliver the striking statistic: "His fellow forward Alexander Sørloth has scored 56 La Liga goals in the last three seasons, which trails only Robert Lewandowski in that span."

Squawka spotlight him specifically: "Alexander Sørloth — the Atletico Madrid forward led his club's La Liga scoring charts with 13 goals this season, giving Norway a second genuine penalty-box threat alongside Haaland." Goal.com add the tactical angle: "Sørloth benefited hugely from the extra space created by defenders doubling-up on Haaland. Under Solbakken's front three system, Sørloth will attack the back post mercilessly at set plays. This is a known weakness of the Iraqis, who have a tendency to ball watch and lack the physicality to handle aerial challenges." At +130 for a confirmed Norway starter who is Europe's second-most prolific La Liga scorer over the past three seasons, this is the outstanding value pick on the entire board — a near-evens price for a striker of genuine elite quality.

Squawka name Al-Hamadi explicitly as Iraq's main goalscoring threat: "Ali Al-Hamadi — the striker opened the scoring in Iraq's 2-1 intercontinental play-off win over Bolivia that sealed qualification, and he carries the central threat for an underdog who must take their chances." SI.com confirm his international record: 5 goals in 19 Iraq appearances.

The structural case for this longshot rests on a key data point from Sports Interaction: "Norway has allowed a goal in seven of their previous nine contests." Squawka too note that while they back a Norway clean sheet, Iraq "are organized and resilient." Iraq held Spain to a 1-1 draw in a June 4 friendly — a result that showed they can find a way to score against elite European defences when given a moment. At ~+700, this is the best-value Iraq play on the board — a genuine longshot with real structural backing from experts who acknowledge Norway's defensive vulnerabilities.

Haaland -235 is the safest pick — scored in all 8 qualifiers, 16 WC qualifying goals, CBS backs a brace. But Sørloth +130 is where the value lives: Goal.com explicit pick, Fox Sports confirm 56 La Liga goals in 3 seasons (only Lewandowski has more), confirmed starter, and Iraq are vulnerable at set pieces where he attacks the back post. Two picks from this match make a compelling same-game case.