AL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Tyler O'Neill Is the Favorite

The Comeback Player of the Year Award is presented to one player from each league who has, in MLB.com's words, "re-emerged" on the field during the season. The award, which debuted in 2005, is voted on by beat reporters from each team and includes 30 candidates -- one per MLB team.

In the American League, past winners include Liam Hendriks (2023), Justin Verlander (2022), Trey Mancini (2021), Salvador Perez (2020), and Carlos Carrasco (2019).

Early into the 2024 MLB season, several stories are already shaping up for Comeback Player of the Year. Which AL players are enjoying resurgent seasons and are contenders for the award?

Let's take a look at the odds, per the MLB award odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Below is a list of the current top 10 and a dive into the front runners.

AL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Tyler O'Neill (-110)

Boston Red Sox outfielder Tyler O'Neill is the current favorite to take home AL Comeback Player of the Year.

The best stretch of O'Neill's seven-season career came in 2020-2021 on the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2020, he won a Golden Glove but struggled at the plate, hitting .173 with a .621 OPS. The following year, he maintained his elite defense, winning another Golden Glove, but drastically improved at the plate with a .286 average and .912 OPS. The result was a 5.3 WAR season, per FanGraphs, that earned him an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting.

In the two seasons since then, his WAR dropped to 1.3 (2022) and 0.7 (2023), resulting in an offseason trade to Boston last December. But his career on the Red Sox is off to a fantastic start.

In 165 plate appearances this season, O'Neill is batting .248 with a .882 OPS. His 11 homers are tied for seventh-most in the AL, his 29 runs are tied for 14th, and his offensive WAR (6.8) is tied for 20th. The one hole in O'Neill's season has been his fielding, which has not bounced back. A -2.7 defensive WAR lowers his overall WAR to 1.0 -- good for T32 in the AL.

O'Neill has been a key component of a resilient Red Sox team that is exceeding expectations so far despite losing several starters to injury. If he maintains his current production, the award is his to lose. That said, with his fielding currently a negative, any regression at the plate could open the door for those behind him on the list.

Carlos Rodon (+550)

Next up is New York Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodon. After a decent start to his career in 2015 (1.7 WAR) and 2016 (2.7 WAR), Rodon's play dropped off from 2017-2020. He battled multiple injuries to his shoulder and elbow and went four consecutive seasons with a WAR at or below 0.9.

That all changed in 2021, when he won 13 games with a 2.37 ERA, earning his first All-Star nod and finishing fifth in Cy Young voting. He backed that up with another All-Star appearance in 2022 as a member of San Francisco Giants.

Those two seasons earned him a massive six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees. His first season in New York did not go according to plan, though. After missing the first three months of the season with a forearm strain, Rodon went 3-8 in 14 starts with a 6.85 ERA and -0.2 WAR. His performance was just one part of a season that went horribly wrong for New York.

Now, in 2024, Rodon has stepped up. With ace Gerrit Cole sidelined to start the season, Rodon has gone 5-2 in his 10 starts with a 3.27 ERA. His metrics have improved across the board, and he is a key part of a Yankees' rotation that leads the league in ERA (2.92) and is 10th in WAR (5.1). Rodon has started to meet the expectations that came with his contract at a time when the Yankees needed him most.

That said, like O'Neill, there is a long way to go, and while Rodon has improved from his performance in 2023, he is still not at his All-Star levels from 2022 and 2023. If he continues to improve and returns to that level, he has a chance to surpass O'Neill. If he falls off, there is a crowded field behind him.

Logan O'Hoppe (+950)

Los Angeles Angels catcher Logan O'Hoppe is one of three players in a tie for third on the odds list. O'Hoppe's career was off to an excellent start last season. Through 16 games he had four homers and a .886 OPS and 13 RBI. Then, he suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder and was placed on the 60-day injured list. After missing 104 games, he returned in late August.

Now fully healthy, the 24-year-old is off to a solid start in 2024. Through 42 games and 162 plate appearances, he is batting .257 with 4 homers, 18 runs, 22 RBI, and a .709 OPS. He hasn't matched his pre-injury level from 2023 just yet, but if he does, he could make a push for the award.

Alek Manoah (+950)

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Alek Manoah had an excellent start to his career. In 2021, he tossed 111.2 innings, finishing with a 3.22 ERA and a 2.0 WAR -- he landed eighth in Cy Young voting. In 2022, he continued to ascend. In 196.2 innings pitched, he recorded a 2.24 ERA and 4.0 WAR. His performance earned him his first All-Star nod and resulted in a third-place finish in Cy Young voting. Heading into 2023, the sky was the limit for Manoah, but then it all went wrong.

After starting the season as Toronto's Opening Day starter, Manoah saw a drastic drop-off in every metric and was eventually sent to the minor leagues. He was kept off the Blue Jays' playoff roster and finished the season with a 3-9 record, 5.87 ERA, and -0.4 WAR in 87.1 innings pitched. His BB/9 increased from 2.33 to 6.08, and his HR/9 moved from 0.73 to 1.55. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

After opening the 2024 season on the injured list, Manoah had a rehab stint in Triple-A. He returned to the big leagues on May 5th and has made three starts in total with 18.0 innings pitched. So far, the result has been okay. He has a 3.68 ERA and his BB/9 (3.0) and K/9 (9.5) are both improved. After allowing six earned runs in four innings in his first start, he has allowed zero in 14 innings since.

It's a small sample size, but if Manoah rebounds to metrics even close to his 2022 season, he would have an extremely compelling case for Comeback Player of the Year.

Vinnie Pasquantino (+950)

Kansas City Royals infielder Vinnie Pasquantino had an excellent start to his career. In 298 plate appearances in 2022, he posted a .832 OPS and 10.1 offensive WAR. In 61 games last season, he had a .762 OPS with nine homers and 26 RBI -- then his year was cut short by a torn labrum on June 9th.

Now fully healthy, he is looking to get his career back on track in 2024. Through 196 plate appearances in 48 games, he is batting .232 with 5 homers, 31 RBI, and a .722 OPS. He has a 0.3 WAR, which is not up to his level from 2022 but slightly better than 2023 (0.1 WAR). He is also playing the best defense (-2.0 WAR) of his career.

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