AFC East Odds: Are the Bills Still the Team to Beat?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
AFC East Odds: Are the Bills Still the Team to Beat?

With months to go until the 2024-25 NFL season kicks off, the AFC East is projected to be one of the most competitive divisions in the league. The Buffalo Bills have won the division in each of the last four seasons while the Miami Dolphins have been the runner-up in back-to-back years under head coach Mike McDaniel.

After a disastrous 2023-24 campaign that began with Aaron Rodgers suffering a season-ending Achilles injury, the New York Jets are hoping to have the All-Pro quarterback available for the entirety of the upcoming season. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are entering a new era with Jerod Mayo at head coach and Drake Maye being the team's hopeful long-term solution under center.

Following free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft, FanDuel Sportsbook's -- via their NFL odds -- offer markets for NFL win totals, odds to make the NFL playoffs, and NFL division odds among others. Although there could still be moves made before the 2024-25 campaign begins, let's dive into the odds and outlook for each team in the AFC East.

All NFL odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after this article is published.

AFC East Odds

AFC East Odds
Buffalo Bills+160
Miami Dolphins+185
New York Jets+210
New England Patriots+2400

Buffalo Bills 2024 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 10.5 (-138 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -168
Odds to Win the AFC East: +160
Odds to Win the AFC: +700
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +1300 (tied for 3rd-best)

The presence of Josh Allen -- who has the second-shortest odds to win NFL MVP (+800) -- at quarterback is going to ensure the Bills are always going to be in contention for a Super Bowl. At the same time, Buffalo is going to have a new-look offense next season following the trade of Stefon Diggs and the departure of Gabriel Davis in free agency.

To help replace the 241 targets vacated by Diggs and Davis from a season ago, the Bills added rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool. Despite the changes on both sides of the ball, Buffalo is still tied for the third-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+1300).

With the Bills having their win total set at 10.5, it's worth noting they've won 11-plus games in four straight seasons. That being said, this feels like a decisive campaign for head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane after Buffalo has been eliminated in the Divisional Round of the postseason in each of the last three years.

In the secondary, the Bills have lost veterans Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Tre'Davious White. Buffalo would surely love to get more production from All-Pro Von Miller, who finished with zero sacks in 12 games in 2023-24.

Assuming Allen can remain healthy and the defense can remain formidable, the Bills are certainly among the AFC contenders entering the upcoming campaign.

Miami Dolphins 2024 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-144 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -164
Odds to Win the AFC East: +185
Odds to Win the AFC: +1200
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2300 (11th-best)

The Dolphins aren't strangers to hot starts in recent years, producing an 8-3 record through the end of November in back-to-back seasons. But Miami has proceeded to lose in the Wild Card Round in each of the last two seasons.

Tua Tagovailoa has been extremely productive with coach Mike McDaniel calling the shots on offense, and the Dolphins are seemingly focused on signing Tua to a long-term deal. When playing at home or in warmer weather, Tagovailoa is ultra-effective with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle being the go-to options in the passing attack.

Recently, the Dolphins also added veteran Odell Beckham to an offense that also features speedy backs De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. There is no a lack of speed on offense, and Hill holds the shortest odds to win Offensive Player of the Year (+700) next season.

The losses of Christian Wilkins and Xavien Howard -- along with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio -- could loom large for Miami. Jalen Ramsey is still a prominent member of the defense while the Dolphins bolstered their front seven with rookie Chop Robinson, David Long Jr., and Jordyn Brooks.

If Miami's offense can show consistency in the latter part of the regular season and the postseason, the Dolphins could certainly make a deep push in the playoffs.

New York Jets 2024 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-122 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs:
Odds to Win the AFC East:
Odds to Win the AFC: +1400
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2700 (13th-best)

The success of the Jets this season begins and ends with the health of Aaron Rodgers under center. The 40-year-old quarterback is coming off a torn Achilles, but New York has reworked its offense by adding Mike Williams, Tyron Smith, John Simpson, and Morgan Moses.

Despite Rodgers sustaining a serious injury last season, the Jets are one of three teams in the AFC East that is expected to win 10-plus games -- going by win totals. The last time New York won 10-plus games in a season was back in 2015 when Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting signal-caller for the Jets.

There is excitement surrounding the idea of a healthy Rodgers playing in an offense that features Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Hall boasts +2500 odds to win Offensive Player of the Year while Wilson is being given +3500 odds in that market.

Under head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets have consistently deployed an elite defense, and next season should be more of the same. While New York lost Bryce Huff, John Franklin-Myers, and Quinton Jefferson along their defensive front, they added Javon Kinlaw and Hasson Reddick.

Once again, the chances of the Jets competing in a deep conference is entirely dependent on the health of Rodgers and the offensive line.

New England Patriots 2024 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 5.5 (-142 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +980
Odds to Win the AFC East: +2400
Odds to Win the AFC: +9000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +18000 (31st-best)

Times are changing in Foxborough as the Patriots have the second-longest Super Bowl odds (+18000) next season, with the Carolina Panthers being the only team listed at longer odds. It will likely be some time before New England is competing for a Lombardi Trophy, but they have a new head coach and quarterback in place.

The Patriots used the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Drake Maye, but it remains to be seen if he starts in Week 1 or if the Pats opt for veteran Jacoby Brissett early on. Given the lack of proven receiving weapons, New England might be in no rush for Maye to make his NFL debut.

The offensive skill group is likely a large reason why the Patriots' win total is hovering at 5.5 with the under holding -142 odds. At the very least, New England made a concerted effort in this year's draft to strengthen their receiving corps by using two picks within the first four rounds on wideouts Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.

With Mayo taking over at head coach for Bill Belichick, the defense should continue being a bright spot for New England next season -- especially with cornerback Christian Gonzalez returning from a season-ending ailment that cut his rookie campaign short a year ago. It would also be ideal for Matt Judon to remain healthy in 2024-25 after he sustained a season-ending biceps injury that forced him to miss 13 games a year ago.

Even though there aren't lofty expectations for the Patriots in the upcoming season, the hope is that Maye can flash upside and Mayo wins over the locker room to give the franchise's rebuild a positive start.

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.