4 Best NFL Touchdown Bets for Week 16

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Picks: Week 16

Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown (+135)

After missing Thursday's practice session for the Cincinnati Bengals, Tee Higgins returned to practice on Friday, and there aren't signs that he'll have any limitations entering Sunday's home bout with the Cleveland Browns. While I also love this matchup for Ja'Marr Chase, there is room for Higgins and Chase to eat in this aerial attack -- especially with how Joe Burrow is performing in a pass-heavy offense.

Along with the Bengals being first in pass rate over expected (+6.6%), Burrow has torched opposing defenses to the tune of 250-plus yards and 3-plus TDs in each of his last six starts. As for the Browns, they are 23rd in schedule-adjusted pass defense and are allowing the sixth-highest target rate (21.1%), most yards per route run (1.90), and seventh-most receiving TDs (16) to WRs, per NextGenStats.

Higgins' role across the nine games he's been active alongside Chase is tough to ignore versus a vulnerable Cleveland defense. In that nine-game sample, Higgins is commanding the second-highest target share (25.8%), highest air yards share (36.6%), second-highest red-zone target share (28.1%), and highest end-zone target share (40.0%) on the Bengals.

FanDuel Research's projections are giving Higgins the fifth-best chance of scoring a receiving TD (0.51) among WRs suiting up on Sunday. The four WRs that are being given better chances to find the end zone than Higgins all have +125 odds or shorter to score in Week 16.

DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown (+220)

There was a squeaky wheel narrative surrounding the entire passing game of the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, which resulted in DeVonta Smith having his most productive performance of the season. Smith hauled in 11 of his 12 targets for 109 yards and a TD, giving him a team-high 6 receiving TDs entering Week 16.

Even though having Jalen Hurts complete 25 passes on 32 attempts for 290 yards and multiple TDs last week could be an anomaly, Philly could continue putting the ball in the air more often than usual on Sunday against a Washington Commanders team that is 27th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. In comparison, the Commanders are 12th in schedule-adjusted run defense.

Throughout the nine games where Smith and A.J. Brown have been on the field together, Smith has the second-highest target share (26.6%), second-highest air yards share (26.9%), highest red-zone target share (25.9%), and second-highest end-zone target share (23.5%). While Hurts failed to throw a TD in the first meeting with the Commanders this season, I don't expect that to happen again in a pivotal clash.

Washington's defense is giving up the 5th-highest target rate (21.1%), 10th-most yards per route run (1.63), and 11th-most receiving TDs (15) to WRs. If the Eagles elect to put the ball in Hurts' hands a bit more ahead of the postseason, Smith won't have these odds to score for much longer.

Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+135)

When perusing through the TD odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, I almost felt obligated to mention Justin Jefferson immediately at these odds. Jefferson typically has odds hovering around +100 or shorter, and it's not like the All-Pro wideout faces a defense that should make us completely ignore him in this market.

On Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings will be the visiting team against the Seattle Seahawks, who are permitting the 9th-most end-zone targets (22) and 11th-most receiving TDs (15) to the WR position. Despite Seattle's defense looking better than it did -- at least at times -- earlier in the year, they just allowed 229 passing yards and 2 passing TDs to Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers in front of their home fans in Week 15.

After going through a rare six-game scoring drought, Jefferson has now found the end zone in back-to-back games, totaling three TDs in that span. It helps that Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his career as the former first-round selection has tallied two-plus passing TDs in six of his last eight outings.

Since T.J. Hockenson returned to Minnesota's offense in Week 9, Jefferson has shown that he's still the clear No. 1 option for the Vikings, generating team-best marks in target share (26.4%), air yards share (33.3%), yards per route run (2.33), and end-zone target share (30.0%) during that seven-game sample. With Jefferson just two TDs short of having his first double-digit receiving TD season since 2021, he should see plenty of looks in a game that is important in the NFC playoff picture.

Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown (+175)

Josh Allen has been simply incredible for the Buffalo Bills, throwing multiple TDs in seven of his last nine starts, including each of his last two contests where he's also combined for 704 passing yards. With Allen playing at an MVP level recently, why shouldn't we back his go-to option in the passing game to find the end zone for a third consecutive week?

Khalil Shakir has emerged as Allen's preferred pass catcher in Buffalo's new-look WR room, earning seven-plus targets in eight consecutive contests entering Week 16. Upon adding Amari Cooper via trade ahead of Week 7, Shakir leads the Bills in target share (25.8%) and red-zone target share (20.5%) while recording the second-most yards per route run (2.51) on the team in that eight-game span.

At the moment, the New England Patriots are 29th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, compared to ranking 19th in schedule-adjusted run defense. Additionally, the Patriots are ceding the sixth-highest catch rate over expected (+2.0%), fourth-highest target rate (21.2%), fourth-most yards per route run (1.75), and fifth-most end-zone targets (27) to WRs.

While we shouldn't entirely base our confidence on a wideout depending on who they'll see in coverage, Shakir should avoid Christian Gonzalez for most of the game due to seeing most of his snaps out of the slot. Considering that the Bills carry the highest implied total (30.5) of Week 16, Shakir will have plenty of chances to score his fifth TD of the campaign.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.