4 Best NFL Touchdown Bets for Week 14

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Picks: Week 14

Calvin Ridley Anytime Touchdown (+200)

It's a dream matchup for Calvin Ridley in his first game facing the Jacksonville Jaguars since departing the Jags in favor of the Tennessee Titans. Against WRs this season, Jacksonville is allowing the 3rd-highest catch rate over expected (+4.2%), 2nd-most yards per route run (1.85), and 10th-most receiving TDs (13) to the position, via NextGenStats.

The Jaguars also rank dead last in schedule-adjusted pass defense and deploy man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (38.2%) in the NFL. According to PFF, Ridley leads the Titans in target rate (27.9%) and yards per route run (2.74) when facing man coverage this year.

Since Tennessee traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 8), Ridley is pacing the Titans in target share (28.8%), air yards share (47.0%), downfield targets (targets of 10-plus yards) per game (5.8), and yards per route run (2.52). Although Ridley is also tied for the highest red-zone target share (28.6%) during this span, he's scored just twice since finding the end zone in Week 2.

Even though I also like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine props this week, NWI's insane touchdown rate is going to level out at some point as he's scored a TD on 40% of his receptions, and some of the scoring opportunities should bounce in Ridley's direction soon. With Will Levis performing better in recent starts and tossing multiple TDs in three of his last four outings, I like Ridley's chances of crossing the goal line against his former team.

Jordan Addison Anytime Touchdown (+220)

While this is a perfect week for Justin Jefferson to get back in the scoring column for the first time since Week 7, there's room for Jefferson and Jordan Addison to excel on Sunday versus the Atlanta Falcons.

There is plenty of optimism surrounding the offense of the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14. They possess the fourth-highest implied total (26.0), and our NFL player projections have Sam Darnold forecasted for the most passing TDs (1.88) among the QBs playing on Sunday.

The Falcons feature a defense that invites teams to throw the ball against them, ranking 31st in pressure rate (27.3%), 30th in completion percentage over expected (+0.04%), and 25th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. In addition to that, Atlanta's defense is coughing up the highest catch rate over expected (+5.9%), 5th-most receiving TDs (15), 5th-most end-zone receptions (8), and 10th-most end-zone targets (20) to WRs.

As for Addison, across the Vikings in the first five games with T.J. Hockenson back in the mix, the big-play wideout is logging the second-highest target share (20.4%), highest air yards share (30.4%), second-most downfield targets per game (3.8), and second-most yards per route run (2.10) on the team. Addison has also earned the second-highest red-zone target share (21.9%) and highest end-zone target share (29.4%) in that five-game sample, which has led to him scoring a TD in three of his last five contests.

The Vikings are comfortable letting Darnold put the ball in the air often as Minnesota checks in third in pass rate over expected (+3.0%) entering Week 14, resulting in Darnold finishing with multiple passing TDs in 9 of his 12 starts in 2024. Considering that the Falcons are permitting the sixth-most passing TDs per game (1.8), there is value in taking Addison to score at these odds.

Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+195)

Much has been made about Trey McBride not having a receiving touchdown yet this season despite having the 14th-most targets (92) and 8th-most receptions (73) in the NFL. It's only a matter of time before McBride hits pay dirt given his usage as he leads the Arizona Cardinals in target share (28.2%), red-zone target share (33.3%), receptions per game (6.6), receiving yards per game (71), and yards per route run (2.51).

In the first two games following Arizona's bye week, McBride has garnered a 35.1% target share, 44.4% red-zone target share, and 2.83 yards per route run. A date with the Seattle Seahawks -- a team McBride produced 12 receptions for 133 yards on 15 targets against back in Week 12 -- might be just what the athletic TE needs to finally score a TD.

Up to this point, Seattle's defense is giving up the 8th-highest catch rate over expected (+4.2%), 5th-highest target rate (20.3%), and 10th-most yards per route run (1.56) to TEs. Additionally, the Seahawks have surrendered the fewest end-zone receptions to TEs (one) despite allowing the 12th-most end-zone targets (six) to the position, so they could be getting a bit lucky that TEs aren't producing better numbers against them.

There's a squeaky-wheel narrative taking shape with Kyler Murray speaking about how odd it is that McBride has yet to score a TD despite his impressive numbers in other categories. It almost seems impossible that McBride could go the rest of the season without finding the end zone, and I expect his scoring drought to finally come to an end in Week 14 versus the Seahawks.

Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown (+210)

Speaking of another player who is overdue for a TD, Khalil Shakir of the Buffalo Bills is someone I'm interested in to score ahead of a bout with the Los Angeles Rams. After the Bills had Josh Allen attempt only 17 passes in the snowy conditions in Week 13, they'll be playing at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Sunday.

Upon trading Stefon Diggs in the offseason, Shakir has clearly emerged as Allen's favorite receiving option in Buffalo's new-look aerial attack. Across the last six games for the Bills, Shakir leads the team in target share (27.2%) and receptions per game (6.7) while logging the third-most yards per route run (2.42) and third-highest red-zone target share (19.4%).

Although it's tough to predict which WR will score for the Bills each week, Shakir could benefit from rookie Keon Coleman either being ruled out or limited in Sunday's contest. Shakir also has an edge with the fifth-most yards after the catch per reception (8.3) while PFF has the Rams tallying the fifth-worst tackling grade in the NFL.

Los Angeles' defense has been below-average against WRs, allowing the 5th-most receiving TDs (15), 8th-most yards per route run (1.69), most end-zone receptions (10), and 10th-most end-zone targets (20) to the position. Despite Shakir not celebrating a TD since Week 3, the Rams are a perfect defense to target as the Bills are tied for the second-highest implied total (26.5) across Sunday's games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.