4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 5

NFL broadcasters love to talk about how quarterbacks need a short memory.

We need short memories as bettors, too.

What we saw on the field in the most recent game is going to stick in our mind, and it's likely to play a role in the betting markets. It can be hard to bet on a team when their quarterback played like booty the last time he was on the field.

But one game isn't predictive of what that guy will do next time out. If we let that play too much of a role in our mind, we may make bad bets or ignore good ones.

That's key for this Week 5 slate as there are a couple of buy-low spots I have in mind after teams or players looked like trash in Week 4.

Let's dig into my favorite spread and total bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 5 Spread and Total Bets

Vikings vs. Browns

Vikings -3.5 (-110)

In Week 4, Carson Wentz had moments that reminded you why he's on his 37th team in 6 years. But I have to overlook that with the Minnesota Vikings laying only 3.5 against the Cleveland Browns.

That has little to do with Dillon Gabriel making his first start. Joe Flacco was playing poorly enough where I'm not sure that's a massive, massive downgrade.

Travel does play a big role. Although this is a neutral-site game, the Vikings have been in Europe for a week, and the Browns played a road game in Week 4. Thus, I have the Vikings getting a decent situational bump.

They also still have a high-quality defense, one that can lift Wentz and the offense should they struggle again. The Browns' defense has played much worse outside of Cleveland than when they've been at home, lowering the fear factor there, as well.

My model's spread and total predictions have the Vikings favored by more than a touchdown, and I have a hard time pushing back on that given all the factors working against the Browns.

Titans at Cardinals

Total Over 41.5 (-105)

Who isn't rushing to the window to bet the over in a game involving a team that got shut out last week?

The Tennessee Titans' offense has been completely inept so far, sitting 31st in both schedule-adjusted early-down efficiency and late-down success rate, according to my numbers. They hit their nadir last week in a 26-0 loss to the Houston Texans, a performance that is undoubtedly dragging this total down.

That schedule for them has been tough, though. Three of their games have been against top-flight defensive units, and they put up 20 points in the lone exception.

The Arizona Cardinals are a less daunting foe as numberFire's 21st-ranked defense thus far. With this game also indoors, the Titans should be able to contribute something.

As for the Cardinals, this is a plus matchup for them, a nice reprieve after back-to-back dates with tough NFC West opponents. I've got this total at 46.0, so even after last week's duds, I think the over is the right play.

Raiders at Colts

Raiders +6.5 (-105)

If images of Geno Smith's seven interceptions flutter in your head as your thumb tries to add this to your bet slip, I don't blame you. It ain't great, especially as the Las Vegas Raiders prepare to face an Indianapolis Colts team whose underlying offensive numbers are genuinely good.

The down-to-down efficiency of the Raiders hasn't been that bad, though, pushing me to take the points.

When you exclude turnovers, the Raiders rank 15th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. While that's not great, and Smith is prone to turnovers, it shows they are able to move the ball. They just need to avoid the implosions.

That's possible against this Colts defense. Each of their past three opponents have outperformed their baselines on early downs through the air while facing the Colts, and their late-down success rate has been above their average, too. It leads to the Colts' defense looking highly suspect in my numbers despite their 3-1 record.

Even after downgrading the Raiders without left tackle Kolton Miller, I still have the Colts favored by just 4.2 points. Thus, I'll take the points and hope the Raiders can -- for once -- avoid catastrophic mistakes.

Patriots at Bills

Total Over 50.5 (-105)

These offenses are cooking to the point where we can take an over even at a massively high number.

Through four weeks, both the Buffalo Bills (1st) and New England Patriots (10th) are top 10 in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. Neither defense is higher than 16th, so the offenses will have the edge no matter who has the ball.

This game checks other key boxes as well with low projected wind speeds, a non-snail pace, and a large spread. This is a huge game for the Patriots, so even if they fall behind, they'll have their foot on the gas all four quarters.

With all of that added up, I have this total at 55.0. That's the fifth-highest total since I started running my model (Week 15 of 2022). Of the 6 games for me within a half-point of this, 4 ended up featuring 68-plus points, meaning we could consider an alternate over here. The baseline number gets us a win on a key number of 51, though, so I'm content standing pat there.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.