4 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 7/7/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Shane Baz's stuff is really sporty, but the occasional mistake or two could really hamper him against the red-hot Detroit Tigers.

The right-hander's 11.2% swinging-strike rate produces plenty of whiffs, but he's 40th percentile or worse in average exit velocity (89.8 mph) and barrel rate (10.4%). His handedness splits are interesting, permitting 1.72 HR/9 to righties thus far, but lefties actually have a much higher flyball rate (38.2%). With winds blowing out to right, I trust Riley Greene to hit one with force.

Greene is absolutely torching right-handed pitching recently. Over the last 30 days, he's mustered a 1.134 OPS, .443 ISO, 58.1% flyball rate, and 39.5% hard-hit rate over 77 plate appearances (PAs). The end result? Nine bombs.

FanDuel Research's MLB home run projections are bullish on another. Greene's median homer projection (0.32) would normally imply closer to +265 odds to round 'em.

Hunter Goodman to Hit a Home Run (+340)

If you don't know Colorado Rockies All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman by now, you're missing out on a bright spot amidst the plentiful amount of dreadful in Denver.

Goodman has been the Rox's best bat all season, and he's actually been more effective against righties (.853 OPS) than lefties (.813 OPS). Goodman's flyball (41.9%) and hard-hit (41.9%) rates versus right-handers also make the grade in this workable matchup with Boston's Richard Fitts.

Fitts has, for all intents and purposes, been a dinger machine. He's coughed up 2.25 HR/9 in a growing sample of 28.0 innings with flyball (38.2%) and hard-hit (42.0%) rates that imply such.

Our projections expect 0.35 median homers from Goodman on Monday, and double-digit winds toward the Green Monster won't hurt his chances.

Robert Refsnyder to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Those winds in Beantown are nice, so let's double up on righties with Robert Refsnyder.

A true platoon threat, Refsnyder's one job for the Boston Red Sox is to smash southpaws and, usually, leave for a pinch-hitter. That's how someone with a .948 OPS, .273 ISO, 43.8% flyball rate, and 41.7% hard-hit rate against lefties this season is north of four-to-one odds against a poor one.

Austin Gomber's struggles unfortunately travel tonight from Coors Field to Coors East. Gomber's 6.19 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) might be generous, and he's allowed an 86.6% contact rate and 1.83 HR/9 in a limited sample (19.2 innings). The Rox's bullpen also has the worst reliever SIERA in baseball over the past 30 days (4.17).

Refsnyder (0.28 median HRs) isn't far behind Goodman's projection in the same game. We'd have set him closer to +309 for a tank.

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+290)

It'll be interesting to see the form Yu Darvish brings to his 2025 debut tonight.

The 38-year-old has been on the shelf with an elbow issue, and the rehab starts in the minors weren't amazing. He allowed 2.25 HR/9 in his lone rehab start despite an xFIP (3.21) that suggested a strong performance. It's always tough to tell in PCL stadiums, but the righty also struggles with bombs (1.32 HR/9) last season.

Darvish's misfortune is drawing an Arizona Diamondbacks team for his first start of the year that's clobbered righties all season. Having just returned from a hand injury two games ago, Corbin Carroll is still leading the charge over the past month with a .756 OPS, .306 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 40.0% hard-hit rate in 39 PAs against right-handed hurlers.

Carroll (0.30 median home runs) is one of the day's top projected bats to once again resume his power binge. Even at these short odds, fair value on a round-tripper -- if assuming that projection is correct -- would lie in the +286 range. Intriguingly, this line has dropped from +320 early this morning to this mark.

Get one month of MLB.TV on us! FanDuel customers can now place any $5 bet on MLB and unlock a full month of MLB.TV — regardless if your bet wins or loses. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.