NFL

4 Best Bets to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
4 Best Bets to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards

Training camps are set to begin in July, inching us closer to the start of the 2024 NFL season. Plenty of moves have occurred throughout the offseason, which has altered the outlook for certain quarterbacks and their respective teams.

With the upcoming season rounding the corner, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a variety of markets within its NFL odds section. Among the options is who will have the most regular season passing yards.

During the 2023-24 campaign, it was Tua Tagovailoa who led the league with 4,624 passing yards. Can Tagovailoa defend his title as the NFL's leading passer? Or will another signal-caller emerge to lead the league in passing yards?

Let's discuss the odds for the impending season and who presents the best value.

NFL Regular Season Passing Yards Leader Best Bets

Here are the odds for all 32 projected starting quarterbacks.

Player
Odds
Patrick Mahomes+650
C.J. Stroud+700
Tua Tagovailoa+1000
Dak Prescott+1000
Joe Burrow+1100
Jared Goff+1200
Matthew Stafford+1400
View Full Table

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+650)

Much was made about the Kansas City Chiefs having a lack of receiving weapons for Patrick Mahomes en route to winning their second consecutive Super Bowl a season ago. Even with an aging Travis Kelce and rookie Rashee Rice leading the Chiefs in receiving last year, Mahomes finished with the sixth-most passing yards (4,183) in the NFL.

While we're accustomed to seeing Mahomes air it deep often, the All-Pro picked apart teams differently in 2023 as he logged a career-low 6.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) last season, via PFF. Mahomes shouldn't have issues pushing the ball down the field in 2024 with the weapons the Chiefs have brought in this offseason.

Since the conclusion of the 2023-24 campaign, Kansas City has made a concerted effort to improve their receiver room. Aside from using a first-round pick on speedy Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs added Marquise Brown via free agency.

The last time Mahomes had a serviceable pass-catching group -- which was in 2022-23 -- he exploded for a league-high 5,250 passing yards. With an improved skill group, Mahomes is still worth betting on to lead the NFL in passing yards despite carrying the shortest odds (+650) in the market.

Joe Burrow, Bengals (+1100)

It was an injury-riddled year for Joe Burrow a season ago as he dealt with an ankle injury to begin the regular season while a wrist ailment ended his campaign prematurely. Even though it was a forgettable year for the Cincinnati Bengals, there is optimism for Burrow moving forward.

From Week 1 to Week 4 of the 2023-24 campaign, Burrow struggled -- in large part due to his ankle issue -- to the tune of -0.28 expected points added per drop back and a 38.4% passing success rate, per NextGenStats. Burrow responded with 0.09 expected points added per drop back and a 53.5% passing success rate across Weeks 5-11 before suffering his season-ending injury.

When Burrow played in 16 games in 2021 and 2022, he logged 4,400-plus passing yards in both seasons to finish inside the top six in the category each year. Having Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins -- who is expected to play on the franchise tag -- certainly aids Burrow's chances of accumulating plenty of passing yards.

Despite losing Tyler Boyd, Cincy added Jermaine Burton in this year's draft in hopes to give Burrow another vertical threat in the aerial attack. The departure of Joe Mixon in a trade with the Houston Texans could also put more of an onus on Burrow to put the ball in the air more.

Jordan Love, Packers (+1800)

It's safe to say that Jordan Love flashed plenty of upside in his first season starting under center for the Green Bay Packers. There were expectedly hiccups for Love from Weeks 1-9 in his debut season. In that stretch, he amassed -0.08 expected points added per drop back and a 44.8% passing success rate, and 10 of his 11 interceptions in the regular season occurred during that span.

However, Love showed off his fantastic arm and ability to adapt with a pristine 0.23 expected points added per drop back and a 51.6% passing success rate in his final 10 games (including the playoffs). A strong finish to the season helped Love produce the seventh-most passing yards (4,159) in 2023-24.

While the Packers don't have one elite pass-catching option, they have a handful of players who are effective in the passing game. Green Bay's group of first-year or second-year skill players -- one that features Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft -- contributed 3,177 receiving yards last season.

Even though the Packers lost Aaron Jones in free agency, they replaced him with Josh Jacobs while adding MarShawn Lloyd during the 2024 NFL Draft. Assuming Love can pick back up from where he left off in 2023-24, he's undoubtedly a threat to lead the NFL in passing yards in 2024-25.

Josh Allen, Bills (+2200)

Uncertainty surrounding the wide receiver room for the Buffalo Bills has led to Josh Allen being listed at just the 12th-shortest odds (+2200) to lead the league in passing yards. Besides watching Gabriel Davis depart in free agency, the Bills sent Stefon Diggs to the Texans in a trade that has shaken up Buffalo's offense.

Given the moves the Bills have made this offseason, they are seemingly going with a committee approach to replace the production of Davis and Diggs. Along with signing Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, Buffalo is hoping Keon Coleman can quickly evolve into a prominent target for Allen in his rookie year.

Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and James Cook are other skill players who should see expanded roles in the passing attack for the upcoming season. If one of the new additions emerges as a reliable option, the Bills may not see much of a decline in their aerial production -- at least as much as people are expecting.

Allen accrued 4,306 passing yards last season, giving him 4,200-plus passing yards in each of his last four years. The dynamic signal-caller for the Bills hasn't finished any worse than eighth in passing yards over the last four seasons, and he'll be asked to throw plenty as Buffalo continues to compete for an elusive Super Bowl.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.