4 Best Bets for NFL Week 9

After a slow start, scoring has been booming in the NFL.

For the first three weeks, games featured an average of 42 points per game. That was way down from 44 during the regular season last year and 45 across Weeks 1 to 3 in 2023.

It led to some absolutely bonkers takes. But whew, doggies, have things ticked up since.

Over the past five weeks, the scoring average is up to 47 points per game. This is more in line with what I thought would happen entering the year due to the changes to the kickoff rule. So, I'm inclined to believe this surge is legit.

I've made changes to my totals model in order to try to keep up, but there's always some paranoia that scoring will continue to outpace projections. The average bookmaker total the past five weeks is 43.9 at close, meaning -- in general -- the market has been too low on totals.

As a result of that paranoia, I'm more inclined to buy in if my model shows value in an over than an under. And we do get a couple key instances of that in Week 9, and they're in spots where I'm inclined to agree with the model.

Let's start off with those two overs that I like before diving into a pair of spreads that caught my eye in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

NFL Week 9 Betting Picks

Broncos at Ravens

Total Over 45.5 (-105)

There appears to be external interest in this over as it has climbed from 44.5 to 45.5 during the day. I think that movement is correct.

Last week, the opening total for the Denver Broncos' matchup with the Carolina Panthers was 43.5. It dipped due to the opposition's quarterback change, but that game wound up featuring 42 points.

I know we don't have the Panthers' defense here, but we're subbing out their offense for the Baltimore Ravens'. The Ravens have put up 40 points themselves twice, and they just let up 29 defensively to the Cleveland Browns. This total shouldn't be just two points above where the opener was for the Broncos against the Panthers.

Yes, the Broncos' defense is elite as it leads numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings. But they have been mortal against quality quarterbacks outside of when they shut down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.

It's hard for me to see why any Ravens game should feature a total this low with how well they're playing and how much the defense continues to struggle. Ravens games have featured an average of more than 56 points this year, and only one has gone for under 45.5 points. My model has this total above 47, so I'll happily ride with the over despite the Broncos' defense.

Buccaneers at Chiefs

Total Over 45.5 (-115)

Despite key injuries at receiver, both of these teams managed plus efficiency in Week 8. I want to buy in on both sides, and the over is the best route for doing so.

Starting with the Bucs, Baker Mayfield averaged 0.24 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back in his first game without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. That's below his previous mark of 0.28 but still well above the league average.

I wouldn't expect that part to stick here as it's a much tougher matchup on the road, but the Kansas City Chiefs' offense should do plenty of lifting toward the over themselves. Patrick Mahomes' 0.39 Passing NEP per drop back in Week 8 was his best mark of the season, coinciding with DeAndre Hopkins' debut. They should be able to move the ball with ease against the Bucs' defense.

My model has this total at 47.8 even accounting for some potential gross weather. Given the two quarterbacks involved, I'm fine buying in and plugging the over.

Dolphins at Bills

Bills -6.5 (-105)

It was great to see Tua Tagovailoa back last week, and it was an encouraging enough showing where I'm not looking to fade the Miami Dolphins.

I just think the Buffalo Bills are a freight train right now.

The Bills lead one of my models' power rankings and are third in the other. They get there thanks to elite efficiency both through the air and on the ground and a defense that has played well despite injuries.

That rushing efficiency allows the Bills to lay on points even when they're trying to salt away a lead. Of their six wins this year, four have been blowouts.

Teams favored by roughly as much as the Bills in my model have covered a 6.5-point spread 62.5% of the time. Maybe I'm selling the Dolphins short here, but I think the Bills continue to flex serious muscle on Sunday.

Cowboys at Falcons

Falcons -2.5 (-115)

Vibes aren't in the model, but if they were, they'd be killing the Dallas Cowboys right now.

Even without vibes, the Atlanta Falcons should be favored by more than a field goal.

Rushing efficiency is only a small part of the equation on my end. In order to win in the NFL, you need to throw the rock efficiently. And the Cowboys' early-down passing offense is dead even with the Falcons'.

But the Cowboys' rushing offense is so abysmal that the Cowboys tumble to 22nd in early-down EPA while the Falcons are 16th. You don't need to have a great rushing unit to be a quality offense; you just shouldn't actively torpedo drives with every attempt.

The Falcons hold the edge defensively, too, and with Micah Parsons not even getting in a limited practice last week, he's unlikely to be 100% even if he does suit up. It's hard to see things turning around in the near future.

As a result, I do have the Falcons favored by about five points here. I'm comfortable laying less than a field goal until the Cowboys start to show signs of life.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.