MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Wednesday 5/29/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Ryan Pepiot Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)

The Tampa Bay Rays' Ryan Pepiot is in the 79th percentile of strikeout percentage (K%), yet he's been under five Ks in three of his last four games. Still, he's carrying a large strikeout total for tonight's game against the Oakland Athletics.

This number feels quite high because the production has not been there in recent starts. However, Pepiot has several advantages to surpass 6.5 Ks.

Oakland has the second-highest K%. Pepiot has flourished at making batters swing and miss with a 32.0% whiff rate (89th percentile). This is another concern for the Athletics, for they have the third-highest swinging-strike percentage.

His most-used pitches are his four-seam fastball (53.3%) and slider (26.3%). Oakland is among the bottom half in the most runs above average against each pitch. The slider -- which has the second-highest whiff rate and K% among Pepiot's pitches -- could especially be a concern with the A's scoring the eighth-fewest runs above average against the pitch.

I believe we will see Pepiot get back to his usual strikeout production on Wednesday.

Bailey Ober Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Let's look at another starter who has seen his strikeout numbers dip. Bailey Ober is in a similar position to Pepiot as he is in the 73rd percentile of K%, yet he has only totaled nine strikeouts over his previous two starts (4.5 each outing).

The Kansas City Royals have the second-lowest K% in baseball, causing some hesitation for the over -- but other categories provide some comfort for Ober's matchup. He excels in making batters chase pitches outside of the strike zone (73rd percentile in chase percentage), and the Royals are tied for the 3rd-highest chase rate.

Ober's pitch usage is another favorable category, for he leans on a four-seam fastball (39.3%), changeup (25.7%), and cutter (22.1%). Kansas City has the eighth-fewest runs above average against fastballs and the sixth-lowest mark when facing cutters. The changeup is a different story with the Royals carrying the seventh-highest runs above average against the pitch.

This is where my pick completely flips to the under. Ober's fastball has only a 23.8% whiff rate and 22.4 K%; the cutter is even worse with a 17.6% whiff percentage and 20.9% strikeout rate. The changeup has been Ober's moneymaker with a 34.7% whiff rate and impressive 34.5 K%, but Kansas City rakes against the pitch. Regardless of his decision, the Twins' starter could be in a tough position.

If he throws plenty of changeups, the Royals could have a field day. If Ober avoids the changeup altogether, this would likely mean fewer strikeouts considering his numbers for the fastball and cutter.

Kansas City has low K numbers and shines against Ober's best off-speed pitch. Give me under 5.5 strikeouts.

Ty Blach Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Reaching three Ks would be a cakewalk for most major league pitchers. Ty Blach is an exception as he holds a minuscule K% of 10.5%, which is in the bottom 1% in baseball. Two of Blach's pitches, his changeup and cutter, are carrying a 0.0 K%,

Blach is facing one of the most disciplined batting orders in the league. The Cleveland Guardians had the lowest K% in the MLB last season and currently have the fifth-lowest mark. Cleveland is also totaling 4.0 strikeouts per contest over their last two. This pick isn't rocket science; Blach has one of the lowest K% you will ever see and is facing a difficult order to strike out. The under feels like the clear side to take.

The Colorado Rockies' hurler has made seven starts this season and has reached three strikeouts in only one game. Do I see Blach suddenly increasing his Ks against Cleveland's stubborn lineup? I'd say it's highly unlikely.

As previously mentioned, two of Blach's four pitches have a 0.0 K%. His sinker (17.5%) and curveball (16.7%) are carrying the weight for strikeouts. However, his curveball has a tiny 11.3% usage rate. The sinker could be the Guardians' only pitch to worry about.

Let's also not overlook the fact that Blach has failed to complete five innings of work in four of seven starts. Cleveland has scored the second-most runs in baseball and is tied for the eighth-highest on-base percentage (OBA). A short outing is also in the cards for tonight.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.