MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Wednesday 5/15/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)

The New York Yankees' Marcus Stroman has not been known for Ks throughout his career, ranking among the bottom half in strikeout percentage (K%) every season during his 10-year career. However, he's regularly providing quality starts in his first season wearing the Yanks' pinstripes, reaching the sixth inning in six of eight appearances.

Wednesday's opponent -- the Minnesota Twins -- have the ninth-highest K% in baseball and are logging 9.7 strikeouts per game over their last three contests. For reference, the Colorado Rockies are totaling the third-most Ks each contest at 9.74.

Stroman has leaned on his sinker throughout his career. Since 2017, the sinker has carried over a 40.0% usage rate in five of his six seasons. This usage has continued into 2024 with Stroman pitching a sinker 41.9% of the time.

Here's where it comes into play against the Twins. Minnesota has the fourth-fewest runs above average against sinkers. Stroman is already peppering opponents with his sinker, as he has for his entire career. What happens when he faces a team who struggles against sinkers? Stroman will probably not shy away from using it as much as possible.

Considering the Twins' high strikeout rate and struggles against sinkers, I'm taking the over for Stroman's strikeout total. FanDuel's projections are also in line with the over as Stroman has a forecasted 5.66 strikeout total for today.

Framber Valdez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-136)

The Oakland Athletics have surprised with a 19-25 record, but they are still striking out often. After finishing with the fourth-highest K% last season, Oakland has the fourth-highest mark once again.

Despite sitting in the bottom 30% of K%, the Houston Astros' Framber Valdez has a 6.5 K total due to the matchup. Still, there are various factors for taking the under.

First off, FanDuel's projections have Valdez totaling about 5.79 strikeouts. Minute Maid Park has the fourth-fewest Ks in the league. We can also just focus on Valdez's actual numbers.

He returned from injury on April 28th and has logged 4.3 strikeouts per start since getting back on the mound. Valdez's numbers have not been there this season. After finishing among the top half in K% in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, he's currently in the bottom 30% of the category. This isn't totally out of character, either, for Valdez was in the bottom 37% of K% in 2021.

His sinker-curveball tandem is still present. Valdez has a ton of movement on each pitch with over 4.0 more inches of vertical movement than the league average. However, the A's are in the top half of runs above average against each pitch. Valdez's sinker could especially get torched with Oakland carrying the sixth-most runs above average against the pitch.

Valdez's most-used pitch is his sinker (53.2%); this spells trouble for tonight's matchup against the Athletics. The southpaw is also in the bottom 4% in hard-hit percentage while the A's have the fourth-highest marks in isolated power and home run percentage. Oakland's bats pose a threat to Valdez's chances of reaching six strikeouts.

Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)

From 2019 to 2022, Lance Lynn ranked at least in the 60th percentile of K%. He's been on a steady decline since, ranking in the 51st percentile last year and now currently in the bottom 43%. Lynn has not reached six strikeouts in three straight starts, yet he has a total of 5.5 against the Los Angeles Angels.

A lot of this can be chalked up to the Angels' underwhelming numbers at the plate. They have totaled the 15th-fewest runs while being tied for the 9th-lowest on-base percentage. L.A. also has the 11th-highest K% in the MLB and has totaled at least 12 strikeouts in 2 of their last 3 games.

Lynn's four-seam fastball and cutter have consistently been his most-used pitches. That's continued with the veteran pitcher hurling a four-seamer 37.6% of the time and his cutter carries a 29.2% usage rate. His fastball usage spiked to 65.9% in his most recent outing.

This could bite the Angels, who have the 11th-fewest runs above average against fastballs. The same can be said for Lynn's cutters with Los Angeles holding the 13th-fewest runs above average against cutters.

The St. Louis Cardinals' starter has not been a reliable bet for the over. However, I believe the matchup is there for tonight; the Angels frequently strike out and struggle against Lynn's most prominent pitches.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.