MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 6/25/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)

The lowest ERA among starters in MLB is still held by the Philadelphia Phillies' Ranger Suarez. He will be looking to improve his 1.75 ERA tonight against the Detroit Tigers, who have scored the 11th-fewest runs while being tied for the 8th-lowest batting average.

Suarez seems in store for another deep start as the Tigers are in the top half of the highest groundball percentage against left-handed pitchers. Keep in mind that the Phillies' southpaw is already in the 89th percentile of ground ball percentage. What does this mean for Suarez's strikeout total, though?

Since May, Suarez has reached six strikeouts in six of his nine starts. When he fell under this mark, he failed to complete six innings of work in two of the three contests. The length of Suarez's starts have typically gone hand and hand with his K total.

Detroit has failed to surpass two runs scored in seven of their previous eight games. Pair this with Suarez high ground ball percentage and the Tigers' underwhelming hitting stats, and now you're cooking. Another quality start looks imminent, suggesting over 5.5 strikeouts for Suarez.

Pitch usage also points to the over. Suarez's most-used pitch is his sinker (31.6%), and the Tigers have the third-fewest runs above average against this pitch. His changeup also carries the 2nd-highest K% among his pitches (33.9%); Detroit carries the 12th-fewest runs above average when facing this pitch.

The proof is in the pudding. Give me over 5.5 strikeouts for Suarez.

Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)

FanDuel Research's projections is forecasting 5.62 strikeouts for Kevin Gausman on Tuesday. However, the Toronto Blue Jays' veteran hurler has totaled four or fewer Ks in three of his last five appearances. Will this stretch continue against the Boston Red Sox?

While Boston has the fifth-highest K% in baseball, they've totaled only 6.3 strikeouts per game over the last three. This is miles better than their season average of 9.5 Ks each contest (third-most).

There could be legitimate concern for Gausman's length of start, as well. He is in the bottom 24% of hard-hit percentage and has surrendered six home runs over his last four starts. Meanwhile, the Sox have the 6th-highest slugging percentage (SLG), the 5th-highest isolated power (ISO), and 13th-highest home run percentage. Boston has also logged two dingers in four of their last five games.

The Red Sox's power hitting could be a major thorn in Gausman's side. Plus, we've already seen Boston's strikeout numbers dip in recent games. Gausman's K% of 23.1% (57th percentile) is nothing to write home about either.

Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)

After missing over two months of the season with an elbow injury, the New York Yankees' Gerrit Cole finally made his season debut on June 19th. The reigning Cy Young winner faced his divisional rival Baltimore Orioles in his first start and will face another bitter foe in the New York Mets on Tuesday.

Cole logged only 62 pitches in his season debut and is expected to be on another pitch count in the Subway Series. At most, we could see the Yankees' ace reach 75 or 80 pitches. With a limited start on deck, targeting under 5.5 strikeouts looks like the wise side.

The Mets' ability to avoid strikeouts only bolsters this argument. They are tied for the seventh-lowest K%. Based on last season's pitch usage, Cole's best putout pitches are his four-seam fastball and curveball. The Mets are among the top 10 most runs above average against both pitches.

A limited pitch count is perhaps the biggest supporting point for the under. Our projections also have Cole with 4.56 Ks.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.