3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 5/21/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

The Cincinnati Reds' Andrew Abbott carried impressive strikeout percentages (K%) throughout his brief minors career, including a 34.8 K% in Triple-A during the 2023 season. This dipped to 26.1% over 21 starts in the majors last season, but that still ranked in the 72nd percentile.

But Abbott's strikeout production has fallen off a cliff early into the 2024 season at 20.1% (bottom 27%). He's averaging about 4.6 Ks each start, which is right in line with his 4.5 total for tonight against the San Diego Padres.

This pick is rather simple in my eyes. Abbott has lacked in the strikeout department while the Padres are tied for the third-lowest K% in baseball. San Diego has logged six Ks or fewer in two of their last four games, and Abbott has only six combined strikeouts over his previous two outings.

Abbott's pitch usage is about the same as it was last season. He's heavily using his fastball (54.1% usage rate) with changeups (17.0%), sweepers (14.6%), and curveballs (14.0%) mixed in. The Redlegs' hurler has used his changeup more than usual over his last two starts with usage rates of 20.5% and 23.2% in those outings. The Padres are tied for the seventh-most runs above average against changeups.

Great American Ball Park is also among the bottom half of stadiums in strikeouts. The signs point to under 4.5 Ks for Abbott.

Joe Ryan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-162)

After finishing in the 88th percentile of K% last season, Joe Ryan has enjoyed a repeat performance thus far, sitting in the 77th percentile of K rate. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) has dropped from 3.44 to 2.96, as well. He was in the 92nd percentile of walk percentage (BB%) in 2023, and this has gotten even better there so far this campaign, increasing to the 95th percentile. Even one of Ryan's weaknesses from last year -- hard-hit percentage -- has gone from the bottom 32% to the 56th percentile.

As you can tell, the 2024 season has been a smashing success so far for Ryan, and I expect that to continue on Tuesday as the Minnesota Twins are up against the Washington Nationals.

The Nats' K% doesn't really stand out for better or worse as it is the league's 15th-lowest mark. Ryan's pitch usage helps suggest which side to take.

This is a nightmare matchup for Washington as Ryan has the ideal weapons to expose the Nats. The Nationals are tied for the eighth-fewest runs above average against fastballs and have the fourth-fewest runs above average against splitters. Ryan's two most-used pitches are his four-seam fastball (45.3%) and splitter (26.1%). Plus, each pitch is carrying more than a 27.0 K%. For reference, his K% is in the 77th percentile of baseball is 27.4%.

Ryan is a pitcher flourishing in the strikeout category, and the Nationals struggle against his best pitches. Similar to my first prop of the day, I'm keeping it simple by taking over 5.5 Ks for Ryan.

Aaron Brooks Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

There's not a ton of data out there on the Oakland Athletics' Aaron Brooks. He's bounced all over the place since 2014, so there's not much of an MLB sample. Injuries in Oakland's starting rotation helped elevate Brooks to the MLB once again.

He's started in more than 10 games only once during his career (2019). What can we look at to take a side for his 4.5 strikeout total?

Fortunately, we have seen a few things consistent for Brooks when he's been in the majors. The 34-year-old right-hander has never finished with an impressive K%. In 2015, Brooks started in only nine games and had a 15.2 K% (bottom 15%). The 2019 season was the only other campaign when Brooks had a decent role, and his K% was 17.0% (bottom 11%).

The A's starter has only one appearance under his belt thus far in 2024 and totaled five strikeouts in that one with a 17.9 K%. He posted a 36.6% chase rate during the start, which would be well within the 90th percentile for the 2024 season. However, Brooks was in the bottom half of this category during the 2015 and 2019 seasons, so it's hard to buy into his chase rate sticking at that level.

The Colorado Rockies have the second-highest K% in baseball, but I have a hard time going against Brooks' career numbers. He's never been an impressive strikeout pitcher who makes the opposition look silly. While Brooks' first appearance was a strong one, I'm siding with the larger sample size of his brief career in the big leagues. Brooks has consistently finished with low K numbers, so I'm taking under 4.5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.