3 Strikeout Props to Target for Monday 5/20/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Monday 5/20/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Ben Lively Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+106)

Following a five-year absence from the big leagues, Ben Lively finally landed a role back in the bigs with the Cincinnati Reds last season. He joined the Cleveland Guardians in the offseason and has earned a spot in the starting rotation.

Over six starts, Lively has impressed with a 3.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, compared to his 5.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP from last season. One of Lively's biggest knocks in 2023 was his inability to make deep starts. In fact, he failed to go five innings in four consecutive outings to end the 2023 season. This has not been the case in 2024 as the right-handed pitcher has completed five innings of work in five of six starts; he's even went into the sixth inning in two of his three most recent appearances.

I believe Lively can deliver another quality start against the New York Mets. Lively is in the bottom 29% in hard-hit percentage and bottom 2% in ground ball percentage. Of course, both categories are obvious concerns, but the Mets have the 6th-lowest hard-hit percentage while also carrying the 10th-highest ground ball percentage.

Additionally, Cleveland's starter has the ideal pitches for this matchup.

New York has generated the 11th-fewest runs above average against sinkers and sliders. Lively's sinker and sweeper -- a variant of a slider -- are two of his three most-used pitches, and these pitches are carrying the highest strikeout percentage (K%) for Lively. His sinker has come front and center this season. It was his third most-used pitch in 2023 and 2017. Now, the sinker is his most-used tool with a 29.6% usage rate, compared to 21.9% in 2023.

The strikeout production has also been there for Lively as he's reached five Ks in five of six outings this season. He was in the bottom 6th percentile and 36th percentile in K% over his last two seasons; this has jumped to the 56th percentile in 2024.

Lively has consistently delivered solid starts for the Guardians. I expect this to continue against the Mets considering the favorable matchup. Give me over 4.5 strikeouts for Lively.

Ryan Weathers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)

Speaking of deep starts, the Miami Marlins' Ryan Weathers has completed six innings of work in three straight outings. In his most recent appearance, Weathers dealt for eight innings, giving up only three hits and zero runs.

Monday's opponent -- the Milwaukee Brewers -- has been dangerous at the plate, totaling the third-most runs per game (5.11). However, the Brewers' run production has dipped over the last five games, with the Brew Crew scoring exactly four runs in four of the five contests.

Weathers hasn't exactly been a strikeout savant, ranking in the bottom 22% of K%. However, Milwaukee's K% takes a notable jump against southpaws. They have a 23.3 K% (12th-highest) overall compared to a 24.7 K% against left-handed pitchers (tied for 5th-highest). The Marlins' hurler has a pretty impressive sweeper that has a 55.3% whiff rate and 40.0 K%. Plus, opponents are hitting only .130 against the pitch.

This could be Weathers' path to success against a team that has strikeout problems versus lefties. We also know Weathers is capable of making a deeper start due to his recent success. Going over 4.5 Ks feels within reach.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+128)

There's some excellent value to be had in the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The D-backs continue to be one of the toughest teams to strike out with the seventh-lowest K%. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take the mound tonight for the Dodgers; he's holding impressive strikeout numbers, ranking in the 78th percentile of K%.

Something has to give in this good-on-good matchup, and I believe Arizona's batting order will have their way. FanDuel Research's projections forecast a 4.94 K total for Yamamoto. The Diamondbacks have totaled seven or fewer strikeouts in three of their last five contests. Yamamoto has also seen his K totals drop over his last three starts, averaging only 5.3 punchouts per appearance (5 strikeouts in two of the starts).

Simply put, the +124 odds on the under look awfully appealing. Projections and stats scream the under, yet over 5.5 Ks is -164. I'll gladly back the under as the evidence only goes on.

Yamamoto's split-finger and curveball hit strikeout pitches about as each has a K% of over 35.0%. Arizona has this box checked as they have the third-most runs above average against curveballs. The D-backs are also in the top 10 of hard-hit percentage while Yamamoto is in the bottom 18% of the category, which suggests a short outing for the Dodgers' starter.

The value for under 5.5 strikeouts is clearly present. Yamamoto seems in store for an off-night in the K department.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.