3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 7/5/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Paul Skenes continues to take the league by storm with a 2.06 ERA and 2.42 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Over his last four starts, the Pittsburgh Pirates' rookie has posted a 1.07 ERA while totaling 8.0 strikeouts per game.

What can this rookie not do?

According to FanDuel's various Paul Skenes odds, he is now -140 to reach 150+ strikeouts this season and has -280 odds to win National League Rookie of the Year.

Will Skenes keep up his elite numbers tonight against the New York Mets? Despite being tied for the ninth-lowest strikeout percentage (K%), the Mets' K production is up to the tune of 11.0 strikeouts per game over the last four. Compare that to New York's season average of 8.06.

Among Skenes' offerings, the second-highest whiff rate is held by his splitter, and New York totals the 10th-fewest runs above average against this pitch. The Mets aren't very dangerous against sliders, either, with the 14th-most runs above average. Meanwhile, the rookie's slider is boasting an electric 39.1 K%.

New York has recently struck out more than usual, and Skenes has a favorable matchup thanks to his splitter and slider. Don't expect the shining rookie to slow down on Friday.

Michael Lorenzon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+106)

The Tampa Bay Rays have the eighth-highest strikeout rate and are a far cry from the 2023 Rays squad as they have the ninth-fewest runs scored, compared to the fourth-most last season. The Rays have consistently been a good matchup for opposing starters looking to stack Ks.

However, today's starter -- Michael Lorenzen -- has been dealing with his own strikeout troubles. He made six starts in June and totaled an average of 3.5 Ks per outing. Lorenzen reached five strikeouts in only two of the six appearances.

Which side will fold? Will Tampa Bay keep putting up high strikeouts, or will Lorzenzen's K woes keep up?

FanDuel Research's projections suggest this could be a close call with Lorenzen's strikeout total projected at 4.65; it's right in line with his 4.5 prop. Despite Lorenzen's low numbers, the over is still favored at -136. The +106 line for the under is simply too good to pass on.

Considering the Rays' weak scoring numbers, their runs above average against Lorenzen's top strikeout pitches aren't that bad. The Texas Rangers' starter gets his top strikeout rates from his four-seam fastball (26.8%) and changeup (21.4%). Tampa Bay is around the middle of the league against both pitches, touting the 18th-most runs above average against fastballs and 12th-most versus changeups.

The Rays have also been under their season average of 8.99 strikeouts per game in three of the last four. All in all, the under side of Lorenzen's K prop is where I want to be.

Albert Suarez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Albert Suarez is another low strikeout pitcher who will be looking to take advantage of a strikeout happy batting order. Suarez has a 17.9 K% (bottom 21%) while the Oakland Athletics have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball.

Prior to June, Suarez was doing mostly reliever work before transitioning to a full-time starter role in late May. Despite some questions surrounding Suarez's ability to make deep starts, he's pitched for at least five innings in five of his previous six starts.

Of course, Oakland's batting order has struggled, with the third-fewest runs scored while being tied for the second-lowest batting average and carrying the fourth-lowest on-base percentage (OBP).

Suarez should pitch long enough to reach the over mark. Plus, his four-seam fastball and changeup will likely fare well against the A's. Suarez's fastball is his most-used pitch (52.7% usage rate), and his changeup touts his highest strikeout rate (22.2%). Oakland is among the bottom seven-fewest runs above average against each pitch.

Baltimore's pitcher has the right stuff to reach five strikeouts against the A's.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.