3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 5/8/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

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The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Kyle Bradish Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

The Baltimore Orioles' Kyle Bradish returned from an elbow injury and made his season debut on May 2nd. He was the O's top starter last season, finishing fourth in the American League Cy Young voting while logging a 3.76 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

Bradish was pulled in the fifth inning of his first start and gave up one run and four hits. He also recorded five Ks against the New York Yankees, who currently have the ninth-lowest strikeout percentage (K%) in baseball.

Bradish will face another stingy order tonight as the Washington Nationals have the 12th-lowest K%. However, the Nats are averaging 9.6 Ks per night over their previous five games. That's a big spike compared to Washington's season average of 8.1 (11th-fewest).

We know Bradish has the stuff after he ranked in the 61st percentile of K% in the 2023 season. He leans on his slider the most as it was his most-used pitch last season (31.2%). That was the case once again in his first start of 2024; Bradish threw a slider for 38.1% of his pitches. The Nationals haven't hit that well against sliders, carrying just the 15th-highest runs above average against the pitch.

Bradish's workload is an understanding concern after he made his first appearance of the season. However, he hurled 84 pitches on May 2nd and wrapped up his minors assignment by reaching 80 pitches. His arm is ready to reach five strikeouts tonight.

Aaron Civale Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)

The Chicago White Sox have fumbled to double-digit strikeouts in two of their last three contests, giving the Tampa Bay Rays' Aaron Civale a prime opportunity to feast.

Civale's K numbers are up through seven starts as he sits in the 62nd percentile of K%. This is on pace to surpass his career-high (60th percentile in 2022).

The sixth-year pitcher has reached six strikeouts in only three of seven outings this season. Failing to make deep starts has been part of his problem as he has not completed the fifth inning since April 16th. In the four starts when Civale pitched five full innings, he totaled at least six Ks in three of the games.

As you probably guessed, Civale's Ks have been underwhelming when he does not finish the fifth inning, averaging only 4.3 strikeouts per game in those outings. It's safe to say that how long Civale pitches will likely determine this over/under.

He has a favorable matchup against one of the MLB's worst batting orders. The White Sox have totaled the fewest runs in baseball by a wide margin (20 fewer than the team with second-fewest) paired with the lowest on-base percentage (OBP) in the MLB.

Chicago is also tied for the 11th-highest ground-ball percentage, which aids one of Civale's weaknesses. He is in the bottom 14% of ground-ball percentage. We could see more ground outs thanks to the Sox's weak lineup.

Ultimately, Civale seems poised for a quality start against one of the worst teams in baseball. Give me the over for his strikeout total. FanDuel Research's projections also have Civale's K total at 6.5.

George Kirby Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+126)

George Kirby enjoyed his breakout season in 2023 with a 3.71 SIERA and 1.04 WHIP while making his first All-Star appearance. The third-year pitcher has only improved thus far.

The Seattle Mariners' hurler currently holds a 3.03 SIERA and seems to have tapped into a new part of his game. After finishing in the bottom 43% of K% last season, Kirby ranks in the 71st percentile of the category so far in 2024. Pair that with sitting in the 97th percentile of walk percentage (BB%), and you're cooking with gas.

Kirby is averaging 7.0 strikeouts over his previous four outings, which included a 12-K outburst on April 27th. I expect these numbers to stay up today with the Minnesota Twins tied for the ninth-highest K%. Target Field has been a favorable location for pitchers as the stadium is tied for the third-most strikeouts.

Kirby racked up 9.5 Ks per start against the Twins last season. He's hot, is in a favorable stadium, and is facing a team he has dominated. Given the +126 odds on the over, that's the side I want to be on.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.