3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 5/14/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Chris Sale Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)

Perhaps a change of scenery is exactly what Chris Sale needed; in his first season with the Atlanta Braves, the veteran starter is back to an All-Star level. He boasts a 2.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 0.98 WHIP. Sale ranks in at least the 75th percentile in 10 of 12 major categories at Savant. This includes strikeout metrics as he is in the 88th percentile of strikeout rate (K%) and 97th percentile of chase rate.

Sale sits in the top 20 of the MLB with 52 strikeouts. He's also averaging 9.5 Ks over his previous two appearances. Considering only Sale's recent production, taking over 6.5 strikeouts seems like the clear choice. Sale has reached seven Ks in five of seven starts this season.

We can take this a step further, though. Tonight's opponent -- the Chicago Cubs -- is around the middle of the league with the 14th-highest K%. They are also tied for the eighth-highest whiff percentage, which plays right into one of Sale's strengths (84th percentile in whiff rate).

Sale's bread and butter has always been his four seamer and slider, but his usage looks a bit different thus far in 2024. His fastball was his most-used pitch over the last three seasons. However, Sale's slider has been the most-used pitch this season at 43.3%, compared to the four seamer at 37.9%. The last time that his slider was his go-to pitch was in 2019.

The Braves' veteran left-hander could give Chicago a heavy dose of either pitch. The Cubs have the 10th-fewest runs above average against fastballs and the 15th-fewest versus sliders. Either way, the Cubs are in the bottom half of the league against either pitch.

Weather looks like the main concern for this over. There is a chance of storms, which could cause a potential delay and a short night for Sale. Keep an eye on the radar. If it's clear for tonight's contest, Sale seems bound for another solid strikeout total.

Chris Paddack Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)

The Minnesota Twins' Chris Paddack has seen his strikeout numbers jump after totaling 16 over his last two starts. His 4.5-K total against the New York Yankees initially seems like a layup, but not so fast. Here's why I'm taking under 4.5 strikeouts.

First off, one of Paddack's strengths has been his chase percentage (65th percentile). In comparison, he is in the bottom 47% of whiff rate and bottom 49% of K%. The Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball at staying disciplined at the plate (second-lowest chase rate). New York also has baseball's highest walk percentage (BB%), which goes directly against Paddack sitting in the 86th percentile of BB%. We could see Minnesota's hurler walk more batters than usual.

The Yanks are also in the midst of a stretch where they are rarely striking out; they averaged only 5.7 Ks per game in their last series. New York has the seventh-lowest K% in baseball and is facing a pitcher in the bottom half of K%.

The fastball is Paddack's most-used pitch at 41.7%. After recording only a 33.7% usage rate for the pitch on May 3rd, Paddack leaned back into his fastball with a 42.4% usage rate in his most recent outing. Assuming that kind of usage continues, this could once again harm Paddack's chances of reaching five Ks. The Yankees are among the top half of the league in runs above average against heaters.

There's certainly a sound argument present for the under, and the +108 odds make the under pretty appealing.

Hunter Greene Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)

The Cincinnati Reds are in the middle of a brutal stretch, going 1-11 over their previous 12 games. Coming into the 2024 season, pitching looked to be a major concern for the Redlegs. However, the pitching hasn't been too bad with the 14th-lowest SIERA. Hunter Greene has played a big role with his 3.38 ERA and 1.235 WHIP.

Greene is among at least the 64th percentile in 9 of 12 major stats at Savant; this includes the 78th percentile in K% and 76th percentile in whiff rate. Cincinnati's third-year starter has been about as consistent as it gets when it comes to stacking Ks. Take a look at his strikeout totals over 8 starts: 7, 6, 9, 8, 6, 6, 5, and 6. With his prop set at 5.5, the over is the side to take.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a tough matchup as they tout the fourth-lowest K%. However, I believe Greene can make a deep enough start to hit six Ks. He's completed at least five innings of work in six of eight appearances. He's pitched into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts.

Arizona is tied for the eighth-highest hard-hit percentage, making them a dangerous lineup. Greene has the answer for this as his hard-hit percentage is way down; he had over 40.0% marks in the last two seasons, and it's now 32.1% (84th percentile). He's allowed just three homers on the season and one over his last five starts.

Four-seam fastballs and sliders are still Greene's one-two punch. The slider could be especially effective as the D-backs hold the 11th-lowest runs above average against the pitch. After posting slider usage rates of 29.3% and 26.5% on April 22nd and April 27th, respectively, Greene's slider usage rate has jumped to 32.1% and 33.3% over his previous two appearances. I expect Greene to keep leaning on his slider against Arizona.

FanDuel's projections have Greene's total at 6.5. The Reds' pitcher has very consistent strikeout numbers thus far. I expect this continue with Greene going over 5.5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.