3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 5/13/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 5/13/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Jose Berrios Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)

After finishing among the top half in strikeout rate (K%) from 2017 to 2021, Jose Berrios' K production has dropped to the bottom 28% in 2022 and 50% last season. The same issues are plaguing the Toronto Blue Jays' starter thus far in 2024 as he's currently in the bottom 34% of the category. I don't expect Berrios to find much success tonight against the Baltimore Orioles.

The O's had a brutal four-game stretch from May 4th to May 8th, totaling 11.5 Ks per game in that time. This number came way down in their previous three-game series, logging 5.3 strikeouts per contest. This is more in line with Baltimore's season-long averages as they are tied for the 13th-lowest K% in baseball.

Berrios has few strengths in the strikeout department. For example, he's in the bottom 21% of whiff percentage. His best chance of finding success is likely making the Orioles chase pitches outside of the strike zone. Berrios ranks in the 65th percentile of chase rate, and Baltimore is tied for the 5th-highest chase percentage.

Still, I'm not sure if that will be enough for Berrios to go over 4.5 strikeouts. He's reached five Ks once over his last three appearances. Camden Yards hasn't been the ideal ball park for stacking strikeouts as the stadium is tied for the eighth-fewest Ks in the MLB.

I'm also expecting a brief start from Berrios, providing more support for the under. He was pulled in the fourth inning in his previous outing. Hard-hit percentage is a major concern, with Berrios sitting in the bottom 5% in the category while the O's lead baseball in hard-hit percentage. Baltimore also has the sixth-most runs above average against curveballs, and Berrios' leans heavily on his curveball as it accounts for 35.0% of his pitches. He even increased his curveball usage in his last start, going from 30.4% on April 30th to 37.8% on May 7th.

The Orioles' batting order could be too dangerous for Berrios to find much success for his strikeout total.

Zach Eflin 6+ Strikeouts (+140)

We could see Zach Eflin's strikeout prop move this afternoon, with the over sitting at -162 for his 4.5 total. There's not much value to be had there, but I still like his matchup against the Boston Red Sox. I'm getting bold with this pick, backing Eflin to reach six strikeouts.

The Tampa Bay Rays' hurler has increased his K production over his last four starts, reaching six strikeouts in two of the outings. Both of these marks were his highest of the season. Sitting in the bottom 31% of K% causes some concern, but Eflin ranked in the 74th percentile of the category last season. He is capable of flourishing in the strikeout department at times, and I believe we will see that tonight.

Boston has the third-highest K% in baseball, which is the main talking point for Eflin's potential success. It goes beyond just that, though. The Rays' starter is in the bottom 47% in hard-hit percentage, and the Sox have the fourth-lowest hard-hit percentage. This eases some worries of Eflin being pulled early.

The support doesn't stop there.

Eflin's cutter could be heavily used for this matchup. It is his second-most used pitch on the season (24.3%), and this number has jumped in recent starts. After recording only a 15.6% usage rate for his cutter on April 26th, Eflin threw a cutter for 36.4% and 41.5% of his pitches over his last two starts. Why does this matter? The Red Sox have the 11th-lowest runs above average against cutters. With Eflin heavily leaning on cutters in recent starts, the perfect storm is brewing.

Randy Vasquez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

The San Diego Padres acquired Randy Vasquez as part of the Juan Soto deal with the New York Yankees. As the Padres' 12th-best prospect, Vasquez recently made his debut on April 20th. Thus far, his performance has been decent with a 4.50 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.

Vasquez showcased more with a 2.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 11 appearances (5 starts) with the Yankees in 2023. He has a great chance today to boost his strikeout numbers against one of the worst teams in baseball. The Colorado Rockies are baseball's worst team, per numberFire's metrics. They also have the second-highest K%, making the over for Vasquez's strikeout total enticing.

We have a small sample size for Vasquez right now. Over three appearances in 2024, he is in the bottom 36% of K%. His previous start with six strikeouts provides hope for the over. Let's dig into what Vasquez has done best.

He's in the 79th percentile of walk percentage (BB%), 75th percentile in barrel percentage, and 66th percentile in ground-ball percentage. The Rockies have the fourth-lowest BB% and seventh-highest ground-ball percentage. Vasquez should be able to keep excelling in both categories, aiding his chance of a quality start. Colorado also has scored the fifth-fewest runs in baseball, providing even more support for a good outing.

Vasquez has dealt a ton of fastballs so far as they account for 49.2% of his pitches. The Rockies are in the bottom half of runs above average against fastballs, which once again plays to Vasquez's strengths. Petco Park is tied for the eighth-most strikeouts, too.

With Vasquez in a favorable matchup against one of the MLB's worst teams, I'm taking the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.