3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/15/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/15/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Cole Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)

The Baltimore Orioles' Cole Irvin is off to a dreadful start, carrying an 8.10 ERA. A deep start for Irvin is not guaranteed, which certainly harms his chances of stacking strikeouts.

Irvin hasn't been a strikeout savant throughout his four seasons, sitting among the bottom 30% in strikeout percentage (K%) for three consecutive seasons. So far, it looks like Baltimore's left-handed starter is on pace to repeat his underwhelming K numbers. In fact, his numbers could be even worse.

Batters at least have the tendency to chase Irvin's pitchers, as he's been in the top half of chase rate over the last three seasons. In two starts, Irvin is in the bottom 43% of chase rate.

Additionally, Monday's opponents -- the Minnesota Twins -- do not chase pitches often. The Twins currently hold the 11th-best mark in chase rate (30.0%).

Monday's contest is not playing into Irvin's strengths. Give me the under for his K total.

Zach Eflin Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)

The Tampa Bay Rays' Zach Eflin has a good matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who strike out often with the 11th-worst K%. However, the 6.5 strikeout total for Eflin feels too high, hence the -160 odds for the under.

The odds are not very enticing, but I believe this is a pretty safe pick. Eflin is averaging 5.0 strikeouts per start through three outings. He's in the bottom 37% of K%. This isn't unusual for the Rays' veteran pitcher, for he was at least in the bottom 41% of the category in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Last year seemed like an outlier with Eflin finishing in the 74th percentile of K%.

Eflin's strikeouts numbers are coming back down to Earth. He's also struggled with allowing hard hits thus far, ranking in the bottom 27% in hard-hit percentage. Meanwhile, the Angels currently lead baseball in hard-hit percentage. Eflin could be in danger of being pulled earlier than expected if the hard hits continue.

The 6.5 strikeouts for Eflin simply feels too high. I have plenty of confidence in the under, especially with Los Angeles regularly making hard contact.

Ben Brown Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-113)

I'm rounding out my top strikeout props of the day with another under line. The Chicago Cubs' rookie Ben Brown is making his second start of his career after making two appearances as a reliever to start the 2024 season.

Brown has impressed in the strikeout department over his last two, totaling five Ks in each outing. He pitched for about four innings in both appearances. Will this production continue on Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks?

The D-Backs had the fourth-best K% in the MLB last season (20.4%), and this number has only improved with Arizona carrying a 17.2 K% in 2024 (second-best). This will be a tall task for Brown, for the Diamondbacks have the seventh-best chase rate and second-best swinging-strike percentage. Both are direct answers to Brown ranking in the top half of chase and whiff rates.

Additionally, Arizona is tied for the 10th-most home runs, and Brown is in the bottom 2% in hard-hit percentage. The D-Backs could hit the cover off of the ball, leading to an early exit for Chicago's rookie.

I think we will see a dip in Brown's strikeout numbers tonight against one of baseball's most disciplined teams at the plate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.