MLB

3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/1/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/1/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB Strikeout Prop Bets

Andrew Abbott Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

In the last two months of the 2023 season, Andrew Abbott experienced his "welcome to the big leagues" moment. Abbott dominated after making his debut with the Cincinnati Reds, posting a 2.35 ERA in his first two months of his rookie season. Abbott's play quickly unraveled during the tail end of last season.

Spring training wasn't any kinder to Abbott as he posted a 7.88 ERA in about eight innings of pitching. His season debut on Monday is a tough test against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Of course, the Phillies have a dangerous batting order that finished with the 12th-most runs last season. They got off to a mediocre start with 4.0 runs per game (ninth-fewest) in their season-opening series against the Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia's strikeout rate (K%) was also high in their first series at 26.2% (seventh-highest).

This is nothing new as striking out was an issue at times for the Phillies in 2023. They tied for the 10th-worst K% at 23.9%. Despite sitting in the bottom 29% in chase rate and bottom 46% in whiff percentage last season, Abbott still ranked in the 72nd percentile of K%, per Savant.

Even during his struggles with a 6.09 ERA while pitching for about only 4.4 innings per game over his last 10 starts, Abbott still had solid K numbers at 4.9 strikeouts per start during the rough stretch. Abbott logged one K per inning pitched in spring training, as well.

Due to Philadelphia's high K numbers through their first three games, I like Abbott's chances of totaling at least six strikeouts.

Chase Silseth Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

The Los Angeles Angels' Chase Silseth managed to greatly increase his strikeout rate in his second season in the majors. During his rookie season, Silseth had a K% of only 18.6%, which increased to 25.3% in his second season.

While Silseth did sit in the top half of whiff percentage and K% in 2023, he still didn't do a great job of getting batters to chase. The Angels' starter was in the bottom 23% in chase rate and had an outside the strike zone swing percentage of only 29.4%. For reference, 29.4% in this stat would have finished among the top-10 marks for batting orders last season.

Silseth will see one of the MLB's best contact teams from last season -- the Miami Marlins. They had the 4th-best batting average in baseball, but the Marlins did chase out of the zone quite often at 33.0% (11th-worst).

Through four games, Miami's plate discipline has been down, although it's obviously a tiny sample. They have chased 37.8% of pitches out of the strike zone (worst mark) and have the ninth-most strikeouts in the majors.

Silseth likes to throw the hard stuff as a four-seam fastball, split finger, and sinker are among his four most used pitches. The Marlins have struggled against velocity thus far with the worst fastball runs above average in the MLB.

He also threw 93 pitches in his last outing of spring training, so he should have a full workload tonight.

Give me the Angels' starter to go over 4.5 punchouts tonight. Silseth made big improvements last season and could carry that into his first start of 2024.

Ryne Nelson 5+ Strikeouts (+164)

When you look at Ryne Nelson's Savant stats across the board from 2023, it's easy to see why his strikeout total is set at only 3.5 for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the New York Yankees.

Nelson was in the bottom 11% in all of chase rate, whiff percentage, and K% in the 2023 season. He was even demoted to the bullpen in September due to his lack of strikeouts. Nelson made a surprise run at the fifth starting spot during the spring and won the job by totaling 26 strikeouts in six starts with a 2.66 ERA in spring training. His K total was the third-highest in the league behind Jordan Hicks' 28 and Spencer Strider's 35.

Considering Nelson's electric results in spring ball, now could be the time to take advantage of his low strikeout total. Until we see him do it in the regular season, Nelson's totals will understandably be set at a pretty low mark.

However, I like Nelson's chances of reaching five strikeouts against the Yankees, and the +164 odds make it too good to pass on. New York is tied for the eighth-worst K% through four games. After recording a 30.2 K% in spring training, Nelson reaching five strikeouts seems far more likely than these +164 odds suggest.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.