3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/10/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/10/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Javier Assad Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)

Despite pitching for at least five innings in three consecutive starts, Javier Assad has reached five strikeouts only once during the span. Will the Chicago Cubs' hurler get back to his early-season production, when he reached five Ks in three straight outings?

The Pittsburgh Pirates look like a favorable matchup as they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (K%) in baseball. They also come off a 13-strikeout outing and total the sixth-most Ks per game (9.26).

Assad currently holds an exceptional 1.66 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while ranking in the 99th percentiles of pitching run value and fastball run value. He's likely poised for another quality start with the Pirates carrying the second-highest ground-ball percentage. This is in line with one of Assad's greatest strengths -- 53rd percentile in ground-ball percentage.

Additionally, Pittsburgh struggles against fastballs with the second-lowest runs above average against the pitch. Assad throws plenty of heat as sinkers make up 29.2% of his pitches while four seamers account for 23.2%.

Pair the Pirates' strikeout struggles with Assad's ability to make deep starts, and the over looks like the best side to take.

Casey Mize Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Casey Mize has eclipsed 3.5 Ks in four of his six starts this season. While Mize has consistently reached four strikeouts, his total sits at only 3.5 due to his matchup for tonight.

The Houston Astros are off to a sluggish 13-24 start, but they've still managed to avoid strikeouts with the lowest K% in baseball. Mize is catching Houston at the right time as they are averaging 9.0 Ks over their previous two games. For reference, the 'Stros average only 6.57 strikeouts per game in 2024.

Houston also sits in the bottom half of hard-hit percentage, which helps the concern about Mize's tendency to give up hard contact (bottom 15% in the category).

This is where my opinion on this pick completely flips. Mize's pitch usage could be trouble for this matchup. Sure, the Astros' strikeouts are up of late, but it's a small sample size of two games. Plus, Houston is among the top six highest marks in runs above average against fastballs and sliders.

What are Mize's most-used pitches? He throws a four-seam fastball 45.4% of the time, and his slider has a 27.7% usage rate. The Astros are in the middle of the league for runs (15th-most), but they seem bound for success as a heavy dose of fastballs and sliders will likely come their way tonight.

I'm worried about Mize making a deep start, and Houston rarely strikes out this season. Give me the under for Mize's K total.

Clarke Schmidt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

My favorite pick of the day is an over line for the New York Yankees against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tropicana Field has the fourth-most strikeouts among stadiums in the MLB, which already makes over picks enticing.

The Yanks' Clarke Schmidt has been rolling in the K department, totaling 32 strikeouts over his past five outings (6.4 per start). If Schmidt keeps up this production, going over 5.5 should be no problem. Let's dive into his matchup against the Rays.

Tampa Bay has the eighth-highest K%, and they've reached double-digit strikeouts in two of their past four contests. Schmidt is in the 68th percentile of whiff percentage while the Rays have the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate in baseball.

A sweeper is a variant of a slider, and this pitch could be key for Schmidt's Ks against Tampa. The Rays have 10th-lowest runs above average against sliders. Schmidt's usage rate for his sweeper spiked in his most recent start at 29.7% compared to his season average of 23.1%. We could see New York's starter continue to lean on his breaking ball considering the Rays' lack of success against the pitch.

Plenty of evidence is present to take the over for Schmidt.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.