3 NFL Wild Card Prop Bets for Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

It's Super Wild Card Weekend, which means NFL fans will be treated to a full weekend of wild playoff action -- including two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, and a Monday night special to close it out. Some of the NFL's finest will be out in force as they vie for a Super Bowl title.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: Spread, Moneyline and Total

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Spread: Bills -10.0 (-110)
• Moneyline:
  • Steelers: +385
  • Bills: -500
• Total: 36.5

Pittsburgh Steelers-Buffalo Bills Overview

While the Buffalo Bills certainly fall under the "NFL's finest" umbrella, the same can't be said about their Sunday afternoon foes. The Pittsburgh Steelers snuck into the playoffs at the very last moment, claiming a Wild Card spot by toppling the Baltimore Ravens' B-Squad in Week 18 while the Jacksonville Jaguars fell to the Tennessee Titans. That the Steelers managed to muster up a 10-7 record -- good for third place in the AFC North -- is certainly an impressive feat, but it's very difficult to imagine this team making it out of the first round.

What was already hard to imagine becomes near impossible now that Pittsburgh will be missing defensive superstar T.J. Watt, who suffered an MCL tear in Week 18 and will not be available to play on Sunday. We got a glimpse of what the Steelers' defense looked like without last year when the star missed seven games, and it wasn't pretty.

Without Watt in the lineup, Pittsburgh's defense allowed 389.9 scrimmage yards per game. For reference, the Washington Commanders' league-worst defense this year gave up 388.9 per game -- one fewer yard than the Steelers did without Watt last year. Things got back on track when Watt returned last year -- they allowed just 272.8 scrimmage yards per game once he did come back -- but the Steelers won't be getting him back in time for Sunday's contest.

That puts the Bills' offense in an extremely favorable position and makes them the heaviest favorites of the weekend. I'm expecting Buffalo to move the ball at will without having to worry about Watt, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills got out to an early lead.

With that in mind, let's take a look at some prop bets to target for Sunday's game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: Prop Bets

Josh Allen Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Josh Allen attempted the fifth-most passes this season, averaging 34.1 attempts per game. The Bills showed a willingness to scale back his reps in blowouts -- like this game could be -- but teams can't really afford to take their feet off the gas in the playoffs. Allen should enjoy relatively clean pockets against the Steelers' Watt-less front -- even if Alex Highsmith steps up like he did in Watt's absence last year -- giving Allen plenty of time to make his reads and rack up passing yards.

It's important to note that Allen should have his top receiver on the field throughout this weekend's game. The team told media members towards the end of the season that they had been managing the reps of star receiver Stefon Diggs in an attempt to keep him fresh down the stretch. They appeared to fully unleash him against the Miami Dolphins in a critical battle for the AFC East title in Week 18, and we should expect them to do the same in the playoffs.

Having his first read available all day should help Allen hit his passing yards prop despite what's expected to be bad weather.

Stefon Diggs Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

If we're hyping up Allen to hit the over on his passing yards prop, why not take the over on his top target's receiving prop while we're at it?

Diggs' production declined in the latter half of the 2023 campaign, but that appeared to be mostly due to the load-management program the team had in place for him. After sitting around a 60% to 65% snap rate in Weeks 14-17, he was back on the field for 88% of Buffalo's offensive plays in Week 18. He responded with a cool 7 catches for 87 yards on 8 targets, which should help assuage any concerns about his juice.

For what it's worth, even as his raw production dipped this year, he still averaged a healthy 1.99 yards per route run on the season.

The Bills could be calling his number a lot in this one after teammate Gabriel Davis suffered a knee injury against the Dolphins last week. Davis had operated as a virtual every-down player for the Bills, meaning the team likely couldn't even rest Diggs some this week if they wanted to.

Diggs should be locked in for as much work as he can handle on Sunday against a Steelers defense that permitted the 11th-most receiving yards per game to wideouts.

Najee Harris Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Najee Harris looked like one of the league's best backs during the Steelers' recent offensive resurgence, but he might not fare as well this weekend. In Harris' recent strong performances, the Steelers' offense was able to keep games close or play with a lead, keeping running plays on the script. He might not have that same fortune against the Bills.

For starters, Harris' three best games of the year came against some pretty weak competition, including a banged-up Cincinnati Bengals team with nothing to play for, the Seattle Seahawks' bottom-three-ranked defense, and the Ravens' B-team. By comparison, the Bills' defense has tightened up of late, allowing an average of just 96.0 total rushing yards per game after their Week 13 bye.

If the scoreboard gets out of hand in this one, the Steelers could eschew the part of the playbook that includes carries for Harris as they go into catchup mode. Jaylen Warren plays a much more prominent role in the team's passing game and caught more than twice as many balls as Harris during the year. The former first-round pick averaged just 11.3 carries per game in the Steelers' losses this year.

I think Harris will have a tough time hitting his 58.5-yard rushing prop against the Bills if Buffalo jumps out to a lead.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.