3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 15

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we kick things off on Thursday Night! I'll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.

Austin Ekeler

Any Time Touchdown (+170)

The Las Vegas Raiders host the Los Angeles Chargers to start Week 15 of the NFL season.

A 34.0-point over/under and a 3.0-point spread in favor of the home Raiders give us the stage for Thursday Night Football. The big news for the Chargers is that Justin Herbert is done for the season due to a finger injury. This means Easton Stick will be the starting quarterback moving forward.

While that changes the offensive potential of the Chargers, it also changes the odds for their players to score. This is a key point in regard to Austin Ekeler, who is at +170 for a touchdown this week.

These are rather large odds for Ekeler, who is ultimately in a great matchup. This season, the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most (1,378) rushing yards to running backs and the fifth-most (10) rushing touchdowns.

Ekeler's touchdown odds are often between -110 and -150, making the +170 odds worth targeting.

Yes, the Chargers may not be as efficient on offense without Herbert under center, but Ekeler's role remains the same. On the season, Ekeler has a team-high 60.5% red zone rushing share, and a 16.0% red zone target share, which is the third-highest on the team.

I don't expect the Chargers to go out and post 30 points, however, when they get to the scoring area, Ekeler is still a primary option for them to get into the end zone.

Michael Mayer

Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

With a very soft defensive matchup, Michael Mayer should be able to pile up the yards against the Chargers.

The Chargers' pass defense has been brutal this season and continues to be a consistent source of value in the prop market. This season, they are allowing 261.9 passing yards per game, which is good for the fourth-worst in the league.

Opposing offenses are routinely racking up the yards in the air and that has led to the Chargers allowing 784 receiving yards to tight ends, which is the fifth-most in the league.

When we look at the Raiders' offense, we'll look at the sample size only from Week 9 to now. That is when Aidan O'Connell took over the starting quarterback role and the Raiders made a set of coaching changes. This will give us a solid sample size for their current offense.

Since Week 9, Mayer comes in with a 12.2% target share, 3.9 average depth of target (aDOT), and 18.2% red zone target share, while playing on 86.6% of the snaps and running a route on 64.5% of dropbacks.

Mayer is never going to be a high-volume target option for the Raiders, but a few quick receptions in an easy matchup should allow him to hit this prop.

Davante Adams

Over 6.5 Receptions (+102)

Let's continue with the same thought process and look to over 6.5 receptions for Davante Adams.

As established above, the Chargers' pass defense is terrible and we should look to target them every week. Also, we'll continue to look at the Raiders since Week 9 when several changes occurred for their offense.

Since Week 9, Adams has led the team with a 33.8% target share, 51.6% air yards share, and 36.4% red zone target share, while playing on 96.2% of snaps, and running a route on nearly every drop back at 99.4%.

He continues to be a dominant force in their offense, despite them failing to score a ton of points. A fantastic matchup and a high level of involvement in the offense will always put Adams in a great spot to pile up the receptions.

Want to put your NFL knowledge to the test? Check out FanDuel's daily fantasy football contest lobby to see how you measure up against the competition.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.