3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Monday 2/12/24
Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.
That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Picks
A 238.0 over/under and 4.0-point spread shows us this could be a barnburner, so who better to target than an undervalued Trae Young?
On the season, Young is averaging 27.1 points per game. These even-money odds suggest a 50.0% probability. Meanwhile, Young is scoring over 24.5 points at a 56.3% clip this season.
But Young had a slow start to this season, and the numbers prove these struggles are in the rearview. He's eclipsed 24.5 points in 25 of his last 37 games (67.6%), including 7 of his last 9 (77.8%). The over on his points prop tonight is clearly undervalued, but how is this matchup?
The Bulls come in with the league's 16th-best defensive rating, but we can see a large discrepancy in their home vs. away numbers. While they have the ninth-best defensive rating at home, they have the eighth-worst defensive rating on the road.
The Hawks play at a significantly quicker pace (third-fastest) than the Bulls (slowest). This matchup is about as paced-up as it can get for Chicago, and their poor defensive qualities on the road show that they could feed into Atlanta's, and namely Young's, hand in this one.
Young nets 37.6% of his points from behind the arc and is one of the NBA's best candidates to get going from downtown. Chicago is giving up more three-point attempts (3PA) and three-point makes (3PM) than any other team in the league.
It seems Young is in a great spot to go off tonight. The Hawks should force the Bulls to play at a faster-than-normal pace, and Young will be leading this effort. Plus, it doesn't hurt that he's surpassed 24.5 points in 9 out of 14 games where he played more than 30 minutes (he's averaging 36.6 minutes each game) against teams that are bottom-10 in pace.
I'll also be siding with Trae Young Top Points Scorer in Bulls-Hawks game at +300.
Victor Wembanyama will be an NBA star for years to come, but the market seems insistent on projecting an expedited process of these star qualities.
Wemby is averaging 20.3 points per game. The -104 odds on this prop imply a 50.9% probability, but in reality, Wembanyama has scored under 22.5 points in 68.1% of his games this season.
On the road, Wemby is averaging 19.7 points each contest. He has exceeded 22.5 points in just seven of his 22 away games this season.
The Raptors do not have a defense worth bragging about, but there are some areas where they can look to stall San Antonio's rookie.
Wemby nets 18.9% of his points from the free-throw line and has been afforded 10-plus free-throw attempts (FTA) in multiple games this year. Toronto is surrendering the third-fewest FTA.
The Raptors have also been forcing the third-most turnovers per game over their last 13 contests, which lines up with when Pascal Siakam was dealt from the team. Wemby is averaging more turnovers per 36 minutes than any other player in the league. In the past, his sloppiness has resulted in temporary benchings from head coach Gregg Popovich. Perhaps we could see that come out tonight against this scrappy Toronto team.
Wemby has played one game versus the Raptors this season. Despite an overtime contest that resulted in Wemby playing a season-high 38 minutes (he averages 28.4 minutes per game), he still mustered just 20 points.
Even though he may not have a particularly difficult matchup in store, I'll take the under for Wemby's points prop so long as the market continues to overstate his scoring production.
We've had to proceed with caution when siding with Klay Thompson, but I think over 15.5 points is more than doable in tonight's matchup against the Utah Jazz, a team that has given up the most points per game over their last 15 contests.
Thompson is averaging 16.9 points each night this season and is eclipsing 15.5 points at a higher clip (58.7%) than the -102 odds here imply (50.5%).
The Golden State Warriors play at the league's 12th-fastest pace, but the Jazz have them beat, rocking with the league's ninth-fastest pace. Thompson has participated in 17 pace-up games for Golden State this season. In that split, he is scoring over 15.5 points at a 70.9% rate.
As you could expect, Thompson accumulates 57.5% of his points from behind the arc. The Jazz have surrendered the fifth-most 3PM to shooting guards this season.
Add in a 240.0 over/under (second-highest on the slate) and 1.0-point spread, and I think Thompson is primed to get in on the fun. There's been plenty of chatter about his performance this season, but a three-point sacrificing Jazz team paired with a lower-than-it-should-be points line for Thompson has me high on this over.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.