NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 5/1/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Al Horford Over 17.5 Pts + Reb (-115)

The Boston Celtics will look to put an end to the Miami Heat's season tonight, but they’ll have to move forward without Kristaps Porzingis (calf)

Al Horford will slide into the starting lineup for Boston, so let’s look for him to eclipse 17.5 combined points and rebounds.

Horford’s been averaging 15.3 PR in this series, but his production historically bumps up without Porzingis.

In 19 games without KP, he is averaging 18.6 PR. But if we adjust this split to account for only games where Horford played more than 30 minutes -- FanDuel Research’s projections expect him to log 34.05 minutes tonight -- he is averaging 21.2 PR.

He cleared 17.5 PR in 9 out of 12 games in this split, missing by the hook on two occasions.

Horford’s Porzingis-less numbers check out, but I think this matchup against Miami should work in his favor, too. In the regular season, the Heat let up the 12th-most points and the 9th-most rebounds to centers per game.

Big Al could see work inside the paint against a Heat team that surrenders the third-most (tied) putback points per possession, but he can also get things done on the outside, shooting the three-ball at a 41.9% clip. Let’s back the veteran in this one.

Russell Westbrook Over 15.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-125)

Kawhi Leonard (knee) has been ruled out for Game 5 of the Los Angeles Clippers versus Dallas Mavericks series, so I’m backing Russell Westbrook to provide a spark off the bench.

In 11 regular season games without Leonard, Westbrook averaged a juicy 25.4 combined points, assists, and rebounds (PRA).

One of these contests was the team’s final regular season matchup. Westbrook played just nine minutes in that meaningless game, which was relegated to the LAC benchwarmers. If we ignore that contest, Westbrook surpassed 15.5 PRA in 10 out of 10 Leonard-less games, recording a minimum of 21.0 PRA in this split.

He did well at the start of this series, recording 21 PRA in Game 1 and 19 PRA in Game 2. But in the last two games, he’s gone a combined 2-for-15 from the field. Since LAC isn’t riding with a deep rotation, I have faith that Russ can make use of his time on the court and see some regression in those shooting numbers.

Our projections have him down for 19.7 PRA in what should be a scrappy and exciting game against Dallas.

Norman Powell Over 12.5 Points (+102)

While I don’t love siding with a pair of LAC bench players, I can’t ignore Norman Powell’s points prop at this line.

Paul George and James Harden combined for a whopping 66 points in Game 4, but we can’t ask them to contribute that much this time around. Powell is one of the best and most efficient bench scorers in the league and typically plays a big role when Leonard is out.

In 12 games without Leonard this season, Powell averaged 13.7 points per game. In contests where he played at least 26 minutes -- our projections have him down for 31.96 minutes tonight -- he averaged 15.5 points and scored over 12.5 points in five out of eight games.

The three misses in this split correlated with him shooting 33.3% or worse from the field, whereas he owns a 48.6% field goal percentage on the season.

Dallas has been surrendering the third-most three-point makes (3PM) per game during the playoffs, so we could see Powell, who nets 47.4% of his points from downtown, come alive from behind the arc.

Our projections expect Powell to score 16.3 points in this one. Given his efficiency without Leonard, it’s easy to be attracted to this +102 line.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.