3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 5/7/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 5/7/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Evan Mobley Over 22.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

The Cleveland Cavaliers will visit the Boston Celtics for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and I'm shocked Evan Mobley's combined points and rebounds (PR) prop is set this low.

In the regular season, Mobley averaged 25.1 PR per game. He averaged 26.4 PR in games where he played at least 30 minutes and cleared 22.5 PR at a 79.4% rate in this split (27 out of 34 contests).

These -113 odds, meanwhile, suggest just a 53.1% probability.

He's shown no signs of stopping in the playoffs, either. Mobley recorded over 22.5 PR in five out of seven games in the first round of the playoffs versus the Orlando Magic.

You won't find a tougher foe -- as Mobley's numbers are concerned -- than the Magic. They own the third-best defensive rating in the league while also playing at the fourth-slowest pace, making it hard for opponents to have a large impact on the stat sheet.

Boston will be without Kristaps Porzingis (calf) in this one. It's easy to see Mobley taking advantage of a Celtics team that let up the fifth-most points and third-most rebounds to forwards this season, especially with their star big out.

Based on the above, I love Mobley's chances to clear this line. Factor in Jarrett Allen's (ribs) questionable designation, and it's clear that Mobley is in a great spot to perform.

He averaged 26.4 PR in five games without Allen in the regular season. He also recorded 27 PR in two out of three games against Orlando in which Allen was sidelined. And for further context, Mobley nets 30.6 PR per 36 minutes when Allen is off the floor.

For as good as the Celtics are, they lack size without Porzingis and could get bullied in the interior. Boston surrendered the eighth-most (tied) putback opportunities per game in the regular season

If Allen is ruled out, I'd consider laddering this prop and backing Mobley Over 23.5 PR (+108), Over 24.5 PR (+134), and Over 25.5 PR (+164). As of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook does not have any props listed for Allen.

Payton Pritchard Over 10.5 Pts + Ast (+100)

While it's keen to approach bench players with hesitancy during the playoffs, Payton Pritchard should factor into tonight's contest.

On the season, Pritchard is averaging 13.0 combined points and assists (PA) per game. Although this average is made up of a fair share of unimportant regular-season games, he'll get more floor time with Porzingis out.

In 25 games without Porzingis this season, Pritchard averaged 15.5 PA and cleared 10.5 PA at a 68.0% rate (17 out of 25 contests).

Porzingis was sidelined for Game 5 of the first round, which resulted in Pritchard seeing 27 minutes of action. Although he managed only 10.0 PA in that game, he went just 2-for-8 from the floor and 0-for-3 from downtown, well below his averages (46.8% FG%; 38.5% 3P%).

With Allen suspected to be out for this one, both of these teams will be playing with smaller lineups, so inserting the small and efficient guard could be worthwhile for the C's.

I'd also expect this game to favor three-point shooting. The Celtics (most 3PA per game) and Cavs (seventh-most 3PA per game) like to show off from downtown and should do just that as this game trends toward small-ball. Pritchard nets 56.0% of his points from behind the arc and could dish out a few dimes from long range, too.

FanDuel Research's projections have him slated to record 13.1 PA this evening.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander To Score 30+ Points (+105)

After averaging 30.1 points in the regular season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander accumulated a more tame 27.5 points per game in the Oklahoma City Thunder's first-round sweep against the New Orleans Pelicans.

As OKC looks to stiffer competition in the Dallas Mavericks, I'm expecting SGA to put up bigger numbers.

Our projections expect SGA to log 36.56 minutes in Game 1 of this series. In the regular season, he scored at least 30 points in 77.2% of games (44 out of 57 contests) where he played at least 32 minutes.

Oklahoma City won two of their four first-round games by more than 20 points. Now, they come in as just 3.5-point favorites against Dallas. I like how this situates SGA as a scorer.

He's played 30 games where either team came in as 3.5-point favorites or less. In that split, he is averaging 32.4 points and scored at least 30 points in 24 out of 30 contests (80.0% hit rate).

I like his matchup against Dallas, too. The Mavs surrender the ninth-most points per game to guards. They also let up the 10th-most free-throw attempts to this position, which is where SGA nets 25.2% of his points.

It doesn't hurt that he's coming off a series where he shot just 47.6% from the field, while he averaged a 53.5% field goal percentage this season. Positive regression in those shooting numbers, a closer game, and a matchup against an unconvincing defense could be just what the doctor ordered to get SGA back to his 30-plus-point ways.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.