NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 5/14/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 5/14/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Jalen Brunson Over 33.5 Points (+112)

After dropping a pair of games in Indianapolis, the New York Knicks will look to regain a series lead over the Indiana Pacers.

From a betting perspective, it might be apt to target Jalen Brunson's points prop after a pair of rough games for him and New York.

In Game 3, Brunson scored 26 points and went 10-for-26 from the field (38.5% FG%). Game 4 brought a worse fate, with Brunson scoring 18 points off of 6-for-17 shooting (35.3% FG%), albeit through just 31 minutes in New York's 32-point blowout defeat.

During the regular season, Brunson managed a 47.9% FG%, so he should be due for some positive shooting regression tonight.

Before this series was sent to Indy, Brunson was averaging a whopping 35.6 points through eight postseason games, scoring at least 39 points in five straight games. His shot volume has been off the charts, as he's taken at least 26 field goal attempts in 8 out of 10 playoff contests.

I'd expect him to have a similar, or even higher, shot volume tonight. The Knicks need a big night from Brunson in order to grab a 3-2 series lead, and a matchup against a super-fast Indiana team in an awesome home environment at the Garden could help him do just that.

It doesn't hurt that Brunson sat out the fourth quarter in Game 4, potentially leaving him with a bit more energy for tonight's battle.

OG Anunoby (calf) has been ruled out for the third straight game. While this has really hurt the Knicks, it does reinforce that Brunson should be rocking with a pretty high shot volume in this one.

He averaged 32.1 points in 17 games he played 35-plus minutes without OG this season. Add in a home playoff environment, a matchup against a fast-paced team, and all the scoring responsibility in the world, and I'll side with the +112 odds for this prop.

Precious Achiuwa Over 13.5 Pts + Reb (+102)

Let's stay with the Knicks and target Precious Achiuwa to make an impact in a starting role.

Achiuwa hardly factored into the first round of the playoffs, but injury blows to both OG and Mitchell Robinson have thrust him into the starting lineup.

He's averaging 12.5 combined points and rebounds (PR) through two playoff games started, though it's important to consider that all New York starters sat out the fourth quarter in Game 4.

Achiuwa has played 28, 22, and 24 minutes in his last three games, and a 2.0-point spread should mitigate any concern surrounding another blowout.

In games where Achiuwa has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 22.5 PR and cleared 13.5 PR in 16 out of 16 games.

While a 30-minute night is probably asking for too much, his numbers in a 20-plus-minute split are encouraging, too. In 18 games where Achiuwa has played between 20-28 minutes, he is averaging 16.1 PR.

The Knicks have put up an average of only 97.5 points across their last two games, which pales in comparison to their 125.5 points per game through the first two meetings of this series.

Indiana may have pulled out the defensive stops at home, but they are still the same team that owned the seventh-worst defensive rating and second-fastest pace in the regular season, as well as the fifth-worst defensive rating among 16 teams in the postseason.

I'd expect New York's eventual team point total to be more reflective of Games 1 and 2 than Games 3 and 4. Achiuwa's numbers would naturally benefit from this, and he's already proven he can exceed 13.5 PR under the worst of circumstances, netting 14.0 PR in Game 4 despite the Knicks scoring just 89 points.

FanDuel Research's projections expect him to go for 14.6 PR this evening.

Michael Porter Jr. Over 21.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

Following what should be a thrilling game in New York, NBA fans will be granted Game 5 of the Denver Nuggets versus Minnesota Timberwolves series, which is deadlocked at 2-2.

Michael Porter Jr. is in a great bounce-back spot after a dud performance in Denver's Game 4 victory, and I like the number we are getting on his PR prop.

Porter averaged 23.7 PR in the regular season and has been netting 25.7 PR per playoff game.

In games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 26.1 PR and is exceeding 21.5 PR at a 72.7% rate, so it's easy to see some value in these -113 odds, which imply just a 53.1% probability.

Although Porter was essentially a non-factor through 35 minutes in Game 4, he has still had 26 PR and 25 PR performances through four games in this series.

In the two games where Porter failed to clear tonight's PR prop, the 39.7% three-point shooter went a combined 1-for-9 from behind the arc.

He leads Denver in three-point makes per game, both in the regular season and the playoffs, so we should see some of those shots drop tonight.

I'd expect Porter to see some regression in his rebound numbers, too. In the regular season, he converted rebound chances to the stat sheet at a 62.8% rate. And in the first round of the playoffs, he converted rebound chances to the stat sheet at a 73.7% rate.

However, in this series, he is converting those chances at only a 54.2% rate, while his teammates Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are seeing higher-than-normal conversion rates.

Look for Porter to come out strong after Gordon stole the show in Game 4, going for 34 PR.

Porter has done well against Minnesota, averaging 25.3 PR in three games against them in the final month of the regular season.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.