3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Timberwolves-Mavericks Game 4

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Timberwolves-Mavericks Game 4

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Kyrie Irving Under 24.5 Points (-125)

The Western Conference Finals have taken an unexpected turn, with the Dallas Mavericks entering tonight's Game 4 with a staggering 3-0 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

NBA teams are a critical 0-156 when down three games to none in the playoffs, so Minnesota's current +1040 odds to win the series (8.77% implied probability) are a tad curious.

But even still, perhaps we shouldn't let the first three lopsided games of this series rule our opinions for tonight's battle. We've seen the T-Wolves dig themself out of a hole as recently as the second round, and they did so by summoning their league-best defensive efforts, holding the Denver Nuggets to an average of 80.0 points across their final two games of the postseason.

While Minnesota's defense has left a sour taste in our mouths this past week, and Kyrie Irving has done the exact opposite with his clutch scoring efforts, I'm expecting the Wolves to lay it all out there to avoid the sweep.

In Game 3, the Mavs went a scorching-hot 14-for-28 (50.0%) from behind the arc. They've been shooting at an above-average clip from the field in each game of this series, so while our short memories would lead us to believe that Dallas is home to the best offense in the NBA, their efficiency is not sustainable.

Irving has led the charge of overperformance. After averaging a 49.7% field-goal percentage (FG%) and 41.1% three-point percentage (3P%) in the regular season, we've seen him shoot above 52.2% from the field and/or above 50.0% from downtown in each game of this series. This leaves him averaging 27.7 points per game in the WCF, but he's still only netting 22.4 points per postseason game.

He has scored under 24.5 points in 10 out of 15 playoff games, and I'm willing to back that postseason-long trend given the possibility of shooting regression on Irving's part and amped-up defensive qualities on Minnesota's end.

In the regular season, the Wolves held opponents to the lowest FG% and the seventh-lowest 3P%. They've also let up the fifth-fewest points to guards in the playoffs despite performances from Irving that would suggest otherwise.

With Dereck Lively (neck) ruled out, the Mavs have lost a key periphery piece. Dallas won't be as well-rounded in Game 4, which could allow Minnesota to deliver more pointed efforts in stopping Irving and Luka Doncic.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 28.5 Pts + Reb (-111)

It's nothing short of a miracle that Karl-Anthony Towns has managed to average 15.0 points per game in this series despite pairing that with a 27.8% FG% and 13.6% 3P%, but it does speak to his exciting shot volume.

Towns has put up three straight clunkers in the least appealing of times, but an average shooting night could have him punching above his combined points and rebounds (PR) prop.

In the regular season, Towns averaged 30.1 PR per game. He's been netting 27.1 PR per playoff game notwithstanding a three-game stretch that will go down as infamous.

And in games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 32.1 PR and cleared 28.5 PR at a 64.2% rate. If we can forget the fact that he has gone 3-for-22 from downtown in this series, these -111 odds, which imply just a 52.6% probability, show value.

KAT has not been drawing an intense matchup on defense; he simply can't get anything to go. In this series, 8.4 FGA of his 18.0 FGA average have been considered open-to-wide-open looks.

He sported a 50.4% FG% and 41.6% 3P% in the regular season, which are averages he nearly met or exceeded in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Based on his shot volume and 14.0 rebound chance per game average in this series, backing Towns would more or less be backing an average night from him. He needs to piece it together if Minnesota wants to extend their season one more game. If he can find his groove early, I have faith that the rest will fall into place.

Anthony Edwards To Record 2+ Steals (+105)

The Timberwolves should look to apply pressure tonight, and that could resonate in the form of steals for Anthony Edwards.

Edwards has recorded at least two steals in 9 out of 14 playoff games, two of which came in this very series.

The Mavericks are averaging the fifth-most turnovers among all playoff teams, while the T-Wolves have been forcing the fifth-most turnovers.

In the regular season, Dallas surrendered the 10th-most steals per game to opposing guards. They've been making a killing off of ball screens during the playoffs and in this series, and while Minnesota has been implementing the blitz to an unsuccessful degree, these plays at least put Edwards in a decent position to swipe the ball.

Lively's absence should have a notable impact on Dallas' offense. He's been holding down the paint better than any of Minnesota's bigs during this series, but fewer resources down low for Dallas could find a once-successful Minnesota group back to their gritty ways.

We've not been able to rely on Minnesota's star scorers in this series, but in a win-or-go-home contest, I expect Edwards to go down fighting.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.